The New Florida Housing Crisis: Why Prices Hold While Buyers Stall

Is Florida's housing market crashing? Not in the way most people expect

The short answer: no. What Florida has is a stalemate. In September, sellers in the Miami metro outnumbered buyers by 158.9%, according to Redfin figures cited by the YouTube channel FloridaPulse. That is roughly 2.6 sellers for every buyer. Yet Zillow puts the typical Miami-Dade home at about $523,000, up 0.6% from a year earlier.

That mismatch is the heart of what host Roy Baker calls the "new Florida housing crisis." Prices are not collapsing, listings are not flooding the market, and foreclosures remain small. Instead, buyers have stepped back and sellers who don't have to move are refusing to meet them. The people who pay are those who must sell, those who bought near the peak, and anyone carrying a condo.

This article uses FloridaPulse's county-by-county tour as a starting point, then adds context on what the numbers do and don't prove.

What the statewide September data shows

The foundation of the argument is the September report from Florida Realtors. The figures below are as FloridaPulse presents them.

• Single-family homes for sale: 95,799, down 9.8% from a year earlier.
• Single-family closings: down 3.5% year over year, a second straight monthly decline.
• Median single-family sale price: $415,000, up 1.2%.
• Average single-family sale price: $644,682, up 10.8%.
• Share of original asking price received: 95.7%, up from 94.7% a year earlier.
• Median days to contract: 47, down from 53.
• Foreclosure sales: 252 out of 20,537 closings, up from 167 a year earlier. Short sales rose from 36 to 103.

Florida Realtors chief economist Brad O'Connor attributed the sales slowdown to rising interest rates. He also said the upper end of the market "continues to perform quite well," per FloridaPulse.

Two points stand out. First, fewer sales alongside better price capture is not what a falling market looks like. A falling market clears at lower prices. A stuck one just goes quiet. Second, the gap between the median (up 1.2%) and the average (up 10.8%) suggests expensive homes are pulling the average higher while the typical home barely moves.

If you want to understand how this fits a broader pattern of improving buyer negotiating power, see our analysis of what the data says about buyer leverage.

County by county: where the pressure is mild and where it is not

FloridaPulse ranks eight counties from mildest to worst. The table compiles the local figures it cites. Zillow values run through the end of September. Citizens figures are the average premium before and after the rates approved in March, as presented in the video. A dash means the video did not give a number.

The slow counties: Duval, Orange and Hillsborough

In these three, the declines from peak are in the 5% to 7% range, even though Redfin's July counts showed Jacksonville with 12,213 sellers against 6,899 buyers, and Orlando with 18,680 against 9,403. Tampa is the notable mover. Its seller-to-buyer gap widened from 74.7% in July to 103.7% in September while the typical Hillsborough home slipped only 0.9% over the year.

FloridaPulse's reading is that buyers retreated while sellers held their price. A homeowner who isn't forced to move can simply pull the sign. That is a plausible reading, though the video offers no direct count of withdrawn listings.

The top-heavy counties: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade

Palm Beach and Miami-Dade show gains or near-flat values despite wide seller-to-buyer ratios. Baker points to cash-rich buyers who are not sensitive to mortgage rates, such as retirees selling a paid-off home elsewhere. Monroe County, the Keys, is cited at $962,885 with an average Citizens bill of $6,463.

The corrected counties: Lee and Charlotte

This is where the cost shows up. Charlotte County's typical value fell from $392,781 in August 2022 to $298,906, a 23.9% drop worth $93,875, and it was still down 3.3% on the year. Lee County is 18.9% off its peak, a loss of $77,830. FloridaPulse says Sarasota (17.6%), Manatee (15.1%) and Collier (11.9%) also sit well below their highs.

Insurance is easing, but it doesn't offset lost equity

One of the video's more useful contrasts is about homeowners insurance. Citizens Property Insurance, the state-backed insurer of last resort, reduced its average premium in most of the counties FloridaPulse reviewed. The biggest cut cited was $287 in Miami-Dade.

Baker's point is about scale. In Charlotte County the average cut was $114 a year, against $93,875 in lost value. At that pace, he says, the savings would take more than 800 years to match the loss. The arithmetic checks out, although it compares two different kinds of money: a recurring cost and a one-time paper loss.

The takeaway is that lower insurance bills remove one source of forced selling. They do not restore equity, and they only apply to Citizens policyholders. If your premium rose without a claim, our guide on steps to lower homeowners insurance covers what to check.

Taxes and condos: two reasons sellers hold and buyers hesitate

Save Our Homes keeps long-time owners in place

Florida's Save Our Homes cap limits how fast the assessed value of a homestead can rise each year. When the home sells, the assessment resets to market value for the new owner. Florida allows homeowners to carry over part of the benefit when they move, but only part.

The effect is a "lock-in." The longer you stay, the bigger your tax break, and a buyer would start from a much higher bill. That is one reason the seller side is slow to budge. Our coverage of the homestead exemption and what it means for Southwest Florida owners explains the policy context.

Condos carry the most strain

FloridaPulse calls condo towers the weak point of the market. September figures cited from Florida Realtors:

• Median condo sale price: $293,500, down 1.8%. The average rose 8.6%.
• Supply: 7.7 months of condo inventory, compared with 4.4 months for single-family homes.
• Cash share: 3,765 of 7,179 condo sales, or more than half, were cash.
• New listings: 12,170 against 7,073 new contracts.

Baker also highlights association fees and insurance as monthly pressures on buyers who need financing. A cash investor can absorb them. A first-time buyer with a loan often can't, which narrows the pool of likely purchasers.

Where the reset is working: Southwest Florida

The most encouraging finding comes from a Florida Gulf Coast University regional report for the second quarter of 2026. According to FloridaPulse, single-family sales in Southwest Florida rose 14% year over year while median prices fell 4%. Condo sales rose 17% as prices fell 8%. Active listings dropped from 3.38% of housing units to 2.72%.

In plain terms, buyers returned once prices came down. That supports Baker's thesis that Florida's problem is a price-discovery gap more than a lack of demand. The same report showed Lee County rents down 9% after inflation, so landlords there can't count on rising rent to cover costs while they wait. For a related picture, see Southwest Florida apartment vacancies and rising listings.

The figure behind the whole story

The number FloridaPulse saves for the end is about flow, not price. In September, single-family new listings totaled 27,489 against 19,809 new pending sales. Condos added 12,170 listings against 7,073 new contracts. That is 12,777 more homes listed than contracted in a single month.

Yet active listings are down roughly 9% to 10% from a year earlier. If sales are flat to lower, those homes must have left the market another way: withdrawn, expired or converted to rentals. Baker's conclusion is that sellers "test the price" and leave when it isn't met.

That is a reasoned inference, not a measured fact. The video does not cite data on withdrawals or expirations, so treat it as a hypothesis to watch.

Limits and counterpoints

FloridaPulse's thesis is clear, but a few caveats apply.

• Mixed data sources and dates. The seller-to-buyer ratios come from Redfin, in some cases for July and in others for September. Zillow's index is a modeled typical value, and Florida Realtors reports closed sales. These measures aren't directly comparable.
• Zillow values are estimates. The "typical home" index smooths over differences between neighborhoods and property types, so the peak-to-now losses don't apply to any single house.
• Foreclosures are rising from a small base. The increase from 167 to 252 is a 51% rise, but it still represents a little over 1% of closings. It is worth watching, not a sign of widespread distress.
• The 800-year comparison is rhetorical. Insurance savings recur and equity losses are one-time, and many owners are not sellers, so they never realize the loss.
• Not every county fits. Baker notes that Santa Rosa and Escambia in the Panhandle are up around 1.5% and 1.4% on the year.

Florida Realtors' O'Connor himself describes the state as having lost momentum without falling apart, which agrees with the overall picture.

What this means for you

If you're a buyer

• In counties with many sellers, such as Orange or Duval, a list price is often an opening position. Offers below it can be reasonable, but check recent closed sales, not just asking prices.
• In condos, review the association's budget, reserves and insurance costs before you fall for the unit. Run the full monthly payment, not just the mortgage.
• In heavily corrected areas, a discount is real, but check flood maps and insurance quotes first.
• Seller-paid concessions can be an alternative to price cuts. Our explainer on rate buydowns versus price cuts lays out the tradeoffs.

If you're a seller

• Look at what closed within the last 90 days nearby. Listed prices show hope, closed prices show what buyers pay.
• If you aren't forced to move, waiting is an option, but note the tax and carrying costs of holding.
• Condo sellers should expect longer timelines and a larger share of cash offers.

If you're an owner staying put

• Your Save Our Homes benefit is a real asset, so factor it in before moving.
• Review your insurance each renewal, because Citizens changes may not apply to private policies.
• A paper loss only becomes real if you sell. This is general guidance, not personal financial advice, so consider speaking with a licensed professional about your situation.

What to watch next

Florida Realtors is scheduled to release October data on Monday, November 16. Look for these signals:

1. Closings versus listings. Another decline in closed sales with falling inventory would reinforce the stalemate story.
2. Foreclosures and short sales. A continued rise would suggest owners are losing the ability to wait.
3. Condo months of supply. A move well above 7.7 would point to deeper price pressure.
4. Southwest Florida sales. If volume keeps rising as prices settle, that is the clearest sign of a floor.
5. Interest rates. O'Connor tied the slowdown to rising rates, so check Freddie Mac's weekly survey as a driver for buyer demand.

Florida's squeeze isn't a single event. It is a combination of high carrying costs, rate-sensitive buyers and owners with enough equity or tax advantage to wait. How long that holds will decide whether the stalemate resolves through price cuts, rising demand or forced sales.