Housing Market Shift: What the Data Says About Buyer Leverage

Has the housing market regime really changed?

The short answer: partly, and the evidence is strongest in the investor corner of the market. The pandemic boom rewarded almost anyone who bought, because prices and rents both climbed fast. That combination has faded. Rent growth has cooled, landlord costs have kept rising, and some investor loans are going bad.

That is the core of a recent video from the channel Michael Bordenaro Clips, which argues the shift is "over" for the old boom and good news for buyers. The creator says it is now a buyer's market almost everywhere. That broad claim needs local proof, and we cannot confirm it from a single video. What the video does offer is a useful chain of cause and effect: weaker rents, squeezed cash flow, investor distress, and then more inventory and discounted sales. This article tests each link.

What the video actually claims

Bordenaro makes four main points:

• Investor loan delinquencies have "quadrupled" in a few years.
• Rent growth collapsed after 2022 as new rental supply arrived.
• Stressed investors will sell, including through foreclosures and short sales, adding inventory.
• Investors are unlikely to rescue the market this time because many properties no longer produce positive cash flow.

He also says it is the strongest buyer's market he has seen when comparing buyers with sellers. He covered that in an earlier video, and we have not seen that data here. For context on the buyer-seller ratio, see our report on Redfin's record seller-to-buyer gap.

The investor loan signal: DSCR delinquencies

The most concrete figure in the video is the DSCR delinquency rate. Bordenaro attributes it to Cotality, the data firm formerly known as CoreLogic. (The auto-generated transcript spells the name differently, so check the original report.) By his account, serious delinquencies on securitized DSCR loans rose from 0.5% in August 2022 to 2% in August 2026.

What is a DSCR loan?

DSCR stands for debt service coverage ratio. The lender looks mainly at whether a rental property's income covers its debt payments, rather than at the borrower's salary. If a home rents for $1,500 a month and costs $1,000 to carry, the property "covers" itself and may qualify.

The creator says these loans can be had without personal information and that credit history does not matter. That overstates it. Many DSCR lenders still check credit scores and set minimum down payments, though the underwriting leans on the property. Terms vary by lender.

"Seriously delinquent" here means 90 days or more past due, including loans already in foreclosure. Those are the loans most likely to end in a sale.

Why landlord math broke

The video offers a simple example with made-up numbers. It shows how thin investor margins can vanish.

1. A home rents for $1,500 and costs $1,000 to carry. Cash flow is $500 a month.
2. A few years later, taxes, insurance and maintenance push carrying costs to about $1,350-$1,400. Cash flow falls to roughly $100-$150.
3. One month of vacancy costs $1,500 a year, or $125 a month on average. Cash flow turns slightly negative.
4. A $20,000 roof makes it worse, especially for an owner with thin reserves.

This is an illustration, not a market average. But the logic matches what many small landlords report: costs can rise quickly, while rent is capped by what tenants will pay. Our guide on short-term rental profitability walks through the same expense-first approach.

Rents cooled quickly

The video cites single-family rent growth to show the speed of the slowdown:

Bordenaro adds that rents have declined in many markets since then. He also cites about 1.5 million new rental units announced, with over a million delivered and roughly half a million still in the pipeline. We cannot verify those supply counts from the transcript. For current rent trends, check Zillow's and Realtor.com's published rent data, plus the Census Bureau's construction statistics.

Loans written in 2022 and 2023 are the weakest, he says, because many borrowers assumed rents would keep exploding. Some also used cash-out refinances to buy more properties, which raised payments. That is the so-called BRRRR method (buy, rehab, rent, refinance, repeat), and it works best when prices and rents rise together.

How investor distress could reach buyers

If more investors sell, the effects for buyers are real but gradual. The video describes three channels.

Discounted sales. Foreclosures and short sales often sell below neighboring homes. Bordenaro argues these sales become comparables and can pull down nearby valuations. That can happen, but appraisers often treat distressed sales cautiously and adjust for condition and circumstance, so the effect on neighbors is usually smaller than the discount itself.

More inventory. Additional listings mean more choices and more competition among sellers. This is the mechanism that gives buyers leverage. It matters most where the distressed share of listings is meaningful, not nationwide by default.

Motivated sellers. An investor losing money each month has a reason to negotiate. A long-time owner with large equity and no urgency usually does not. Our piece on why home prices haven't dropped explains why that second group still holds prices up in many areas.

The video also notes that starter homes were a favorite investor target because they are cheapest. If those homes come back to market, entry-level buyers could see more options. That is a reasonable expectation, not a guaranteed outcome.

Testing the "buyer's market everywhere" claim

"Buyer's market" has no single official definition. Analysts usually look at several indicators together. Here is a practical scorecard you can check for your own metro.

Local differences are large. Markets with heavy new construction or heavy investor ownership can look very different from tight, supply-constrained metros. For a deeper look at default risk, see our analysis of whether a mortgage crisis is coming.

Limits and counterpoints

The video's enthusiasm deserves some caution.

• Small base. A 2% serious-delinquency rate means about 98% of those securitized loans are not seriously delinquent. Quadrupling from a very low level is notable, but it is not a systemic break. Securitized DSCR loans are also only part of the investor market.
• Not the same as 2008. Owner-occupants with fixed-rate mortgages and large equity remain the bulk of the market. Our comparison of today's market with 2008 covers why.
• Selective evidence. The creator is a former landlord who says he exited early. His view is informed, but it is one perspective, and he is optimistic about outcomes that depend on many local factors.
• Rent data varies. Different indexes give different rent growth numbers, and rents can still rise in markets with limited new construction.
• Time lag. Foreclosure timelines can take months or years, so distressed sales may arrive slowly and unevenly.

What this means for you

If you are buying

• Check local inventory, days on market and price cuts before assuming leverage.
• Ask your agent how many nearby listings are investor-owned or have already dropped their price.
• Use time as a tool. Sellers who have sat on the market are more likely to negotiate on price, repairs or concessions. See our guide to buying a home today.
• Treat foreclosures and short sales carefully. They can take longer, come as-is, and carry hidden repair costs. Get an inspection.

If you are selling

• Price to recent comparable sales, not to peaks from 2022 or 2023.
• Expect more competing listings, especially in the starter-home range.
• Consider concessions, such as repairs or a seller-paid rate buydown, if showings are slow.

If you own rental property

• Rebuild your cash-flow numbers with current taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy and a repair reserve.
• Stress-test for a month or two of vacancy and a major repair.
• If you rely on a variable rate or a coming refinance, review your timeline and talk to a lender or advisor.

None of this is personalized financial advice. Your own finances and local market should drive your decisions.

What to watch next

Several data points will show whether the shift deepens or stalls:

• Cotality's and other lenders' investor-loan delinquency updates, including whether the 2% figure keeps rising.
• Rental vacancy and rent growth, along with new multifamily completions from the Census Bureau.
• Monthly inventory and days-on-market reports from Realtor.com and Redfin.
• Mortgage rates from Freddie Mac's weekly survey. Our look at the Fed and mortgage rates after the midterms explains the rate backdrop.

The bottom line: the boom-era conditions that rewarded leverage and rapid rent growth have clearly eased, and investor stress is one visible sign. Whether that translates into a true buyer's market depends on your metro, price tier and timing.