Florida Counties Losing Residents: What 2026 Census Data Shows

Which Florida counties are losing residents, and does it hurt home prices?

Fifteen of Florida's 67 counties now lose more people through domestic moves than they gain, according to a reading of the Census Bureau's latest county estimates by the YouTube channel FloridaPulse. In 2022 only eight did. Together those 15 counties shed a net 167,473 residents in the 12 months to July 2025.

The short answer on housing: the link between outflow and price is real but uneven. Collier, Pinellas and Broward counties are meaningfully below their price peaks. Miami-Dade, Palm Beach and tiny Taylor County are still posting year-over-year gains. What most often moves first is not the median price but how long homes sit and how many listings cut their asking price.

This article walks through the 12 counties with the largest net domestic losses, what the creator says is driving each one, and how to read the numbers without overreacting.

The statewide picture: a 93% drop in net inflow

FloridaPulse's host, Roy Baker, starts with the statewide figure. Florida gained a net 310,892 people from the rest of the country in the 12 months to July 2022. For the 12 months to July 2025, the same measure was 22,517. That is a decline of roughly 93% in three years.

Two definitions help here:

• Net domestic migration counts people moving between US locations, whether from another state or another Florida county, minus those leaving. It excludes births, deaths and immigration.
• Population change adds natural change (births minus deaths) and international arrivals. A county can lose domestic residents and still grow overall.

That second point matters. Several counties on this list kept growing because of arrivals from abroad, which the video tallies separately. Reading only the total population line can hide a weakening local buyer pool.

The data is the Census Bureau's "vintage 2025" release, which covers the year ending July 1, 2025, despite the "2026" in the video title. The home value figures come from Zillow's September 2026 numbers. That gap in timing is worth keeping in mind.

The 12 counties at a glance

The ranking is by raw count of net domestic out-migration, with the rate per 1,000 residents shown to keep small counties visible. Rates and values are as stated in the video and are rounded.

The big four coastal and metro counties

Miami-Dade, Broward, Orange and Hillsborough account for most of the loss. The creator says the last four counties on his list represent about eight in every ten residents lost across all 15 losing counties.

Miami-Dade: biggest outflow, resilient prices

Miami-Dade lost a net 72,254 people in the year to July 2025, the highest rate and count in the state. The loss has grown each year since 2022, from about 39,000 to 50,800 to 68,200 to 72,000, then to this latest figure. Over five years the video totals 270,815, which it compares with the population of St. Petersburg (about 264,000).

Arrivals from abroad, above 101,000 in 2023, fell to about 54,000. The county's population fell by 10,115.

Yet the typical home value is up slightly and only 3.2% below an October 2024 peak. Baker offers three reasons: Miami-area listings fell about 14% year over year (about 47,200 versus 55,000), only about 19% of listings carried a price cut, and the top price tier rose about 3.4% to nearly $1 million. He notes weakness is showing up at lower price points, such as Homestead, where values are down about 3% on the year.

Broward, Orange and Hillsborough

Broward's domestic loss was about four times its 2022 level of 7,298. Arrivals from abroad dropped from 44,400 in 2023 to about 25,000, and the county's population slipped by 372, its first decline since 2021. Values sit about $31,000 under a May 2024 peak.

Orange County is a case where the headline masks the shift. Arrivals from abroad (20,230) nearly matched the domestic loss, so population still grew by about 7,000. But the Orlando metro's average time to pending was 73 days in September, versus 48 in September 2019, and about 28% of listings had a price cut.

Hillsborough gained 15,791 domestic movers in 2022 and lost almost the same number three years later. About 31% of Tampa-area listings carried a price cut in September, according to the video.

Storm-hit and high-cost counties: Pinellas, Collier and Monroe

Three counties show cost and risk pressures more clearly than the rest.

Pinellas had the largest overall population drop in Florida, down 11,834. The county recorded 7,144 births against 12,332 deaths, so it had little cushion. The Census year runs through Hurricanes Helene and Milton in fall 2024. Baker cites a local early estimate of about 40,910 damaged homes and argues some owners moved rather than rebuild. Typical values are 9.3% below July 2024, with barrier-island towns well below their own highs.

Collier went from a gain of 11,062 domestic movers in 2021 to a net loss of 2,337. Baker says this is where the tie to prices is strongest: down almost 12% from a March 2024 peak, a drop of about $74,463.

Monroe, the Florida Keys, has lost residents to other counties in each of the last five years, a combined 6,210. Typical rent is about $3,671 a month, and homes took roughly 155 days on average to go under contract in September. Baker is careful to say cost is his interpretation, since the Census does not ask why people move.

The smaller counties and the cases where prices held

Taylor County lost jobs when the Foley Cellulose mill and a West Fraser sawmill in Perry closed, but its low price point has kept values rising. Leon (Tallahassee) has seen its outflow shrink two years running, and values are about $1,600 under their record. Seminole cut its outflow roughly in half in 2025, from 2,089 to 1,016. Alachua is the softer case: down about 1.3% on the year, listings taking about 82 days to go under contract versus 74 a year earlier, and about 27% with price cuts.

Palm Beach is the other notable outlier. Domestic loss swung by more than 21,000 people a year from 2022, but typical values are up about 2.3% and the top tier is up about 5.7%. The video's argument is that those leaving are not the ones setting prices at the high end.

What this means for you

This is general information, not personal financial advice.

If you are a buyer:

• Check price-cut share and days to pending for the specific metro. Those indicators, more than population news, suggest whether you have room to negotiate. Our guide to buyer leverage in the housing market explains how to read them.
• In storm-exposed areas, get insurance quotes and flood-zone details before making an offer, not after. Premiums can change the monthly cost more than a small price cut.
• Compare against local peaks, as the video does, but remember a peak from 2022 or 2024 is not a fair value target.

If you are a seller:

• Expect the first offers to anchor on recent comparable sales and on how long similar homes have sat, especially in Pinellas barrier-island towns, Naples and Key West.
• Pricing realistically at the start usually beats serial reductions. For more on this, see why home prices have not dropped despite stubborn sellers.

If you are an owner:

• A county losing residents is not the same as your home losing value. Neighborhood, price tier and condition matter more than the county headline.
• Review your insurance and carrying costs each renewal. For related risks on recent purchases, read about Florida new-construction resale losses.

Limits of the analysis

The video is a useful county-by-county compilation, but there are caveats.

• Causes are inferred. The Census counts movers, not motives. Mill closures, storms and rents are plausible drivers, but the creator himself calls several of them a read of the data.
• Timing mismatch. Migration data ends in July 2025, while Zillow values are from September 2026. Prices have had over a year to respond to other forces, including mortgage rates and insurance.
• Medians hide composition. If lower-priced households leave and higher-income buyers arrive, typical values can rise even as demand thins at the bottom.
• Insurance is not quantified. The video touches on storm damage but does not provide premium data. Readers should check the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation and Citizens Property Insurance for current figures.
• Self-published numbers. The channel's totals are the creator's calculations from public tables. Verify specific counts at the Census Bureau before relying on them.

What to watch next

Baker says his next video covers where residents went: Polk (up 18,752 from domestic moves), Pasco (18,078) and Marion (15,971) were the biggest gainers. That points to a shift from coastal metros toward inland, lower-priced counties, which is a theme in our look at the worst states to move to in 2027.

Key indicators to track:

1. The next Census county estimates, to see whether the 15-county count rises or falls.
2. Monthly price-cut share and days to pending in Miami, Tampa and Orlando, via Redfin and Zillow.
3. Insurance renewals and rate filings in storm-exposed counties.
4. Whether arrivals from abroad, which have been cushioning population totals, keep falling.

Florida is still growing overall in most places, but the mix of who is moving in and out has changed. For local decisions, the specific neighborhood and the cost of owning there matter more than any single county ranking.