Why Home Prices Haven't Dropped: Stubborn Sellers Hold the Line

The short answer: asking prices are doing the heavy lifting

If demand is weak, why haven't home prices dropped more? According to Michael Bordenaro Clips, the answer is simple: many sellers are still asking for more than buyers will pay, and enough of them can afford to wait. In his video, published October 29, 2026, he calls "stubborn sellers" the last thing propping up prices.

His evidence is the way deals are actually getting done. He says about 20% of listings now carry a price cut and roughly half include some kind of concession, such as help with closing costs, to get a deal over the line. That points to a market where the headline price and the real price are drifting apart.

This article breaks down his claims, adds context on how lock-in and ownership costs shape seller behavior, and flags where his view deserves caution.

Key figures cited in the video

Here are the numbers the creator uses. They come from his on-camera summary of reports, so verify them against the original sources before relying on them.

The mortgage-rate figures are the most uncertain item here. Check the latest weekly average in Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey and Fannie Mae's current forecast rather than relying on a secondhand number.

Who is actually "stubborn"?

Bordenaro draws a line between two kinds of sellers. The first group can wait: people with a very low mortgage rate, or those who are testing the market with no deadline. If the price is not met, they pull the listing and try again later.

The second group has no such option. He notes that most listings are driven by a life event: a job transfer, a job loss, a divorce, a family change or a downsizing. These sellers need to sell, and over time they tend to accept the market's price.

That distinction matters for how prices move. When most sellers are flexible, prices adjust quickly. When a large share can wait, the market can sit in a standoff, with fewer sales and prices that look sticky. The standoff only breaks when the number of "must sell" owners grows or the patient ones run out of patience.

This is consistent with other signs of a market with more supply than demand. Our look at record seller-to-buyer ratios in Redfin's data shows the same imbalance from another angle, and falling showing activity suggests buyers are being choosy.

The lock-in effect is loosening

For several years, many owners stayed put because moving meant giving up a pandemic-era mortgage rate. The video's central data point on this: about 40% of home loans now have a rate above 5%, compared with only about a fifth in 2023.

The logic is straightforward. Each year, more people buy or refinance at current rates. Those owners no longer face a big penalty for selling, so the "golden handcuffs" hold fewer households in place. Bordenaro concludes that the lock-in effect has largely faded.

That conclusion may go further than the data does. A shift from one-fifth to 40% still leaves a majority of loans at 5% or below, which means most owners still have a financial reason to stay. A fairer reading: lock-in is easing at the margin, which gradually adds supply, but it has not disappeared.

A shock could change the supply picture quickly

The creator's most forceful argument is about timing. He points out that the economy has not yet seen an official recession or a sharp rise in unemployment. If either arrives, or if stocks fall sharply, he expects many more owners to be forced to sell, perhaps doubling the number looking to list.

Treat that as a scenario, not a forecast. Job losses and financial stress do push owners toward selling, but rising supply does not automatically mean a price collapse; it depends on how many buyers remain and what financing costs. For a data-driven look at whether stress is building, see our piece on whether a mortgage crisis is coming.

Insurance and upkeep: the cost pressure on owners

A second pressure point is the cost of simply owning a home. Citing ICE, Bordenaro says the average single-family homeowner with a mortgage now pays $209 a month for insurance. That is about $2,500 a year, 80% more than at the start of 2020 and 8.7% more than a year earlier. Insurance now makes up around 9.6% of the typical monthly mortgage payment.

He adds one nuance: higher coverage limits account for about two-thirds of the past year's increase. In other words, part of the rise reflects owners insuring homes for more, not only higher rates for the same coverage.

Why this affects listings

A fixed-rate loan locks principal and interest, but not the other pieces of the payment. Property taxes, insurance and repairs can all rise. His example: if annual insurance goes from $2,000 to $2,600, the escrow account must collect another $600 a year, or about $50 more each month. That is manageable for some budgets and a tipping point for others.

He also describes a flood-prone neighborhood in California where recent flooding caused water damage. His point is that repeated surprise expenses, plus the stress of dealing with them, can push owners to list, even in expensive areas, while buyers may be wary of properties with known flood risk. This is one local anecdote, not a national trend, but it illustrates how costs can affect decisions.

For context on how rising insurance and taxes shape where people choose to live, read our guide to the states with the highest housing costs, insurance and taxes.

Limits and counterpoints

The creator's case is plausible, but readers should weigh several caveats:

• Opinion versus data. Forecasts of 8% mortgage rates and a coming wave of listings are his personal predictions. Fannie Mae's own outlook, as he describes it, is lower, and rate forecasts have missed often.
• Sources are thin. The 20% and 50% shares are given without a named source or date. Price-cut and concession rates vary a lot by metro and price tier.
• Prices are local. A national headline does not describe a market where inventory is still tight. Some regions face large supply; others do not.
• Sellers can wait. Many owners have substantial equity and low payments. They can delist rather than discount, which keeps listed supply and recorded sales prices more stable than a distressed scenario would imply.
• Advice to "sell now" is general. Whether to sell depends on your equity, your next move and your local comps.

What this means for you

Buyers. The video's advice is to focus on what you control: raise income, pay down debt and improve your credit score. Negotiation looks realistic when many listings already carry cuts or concessions, so ask about closing-cost help and request a price history before offering. Our practical guide to buying a home today covers rates, closing costs and negotiation. Bordenaro also notes that prices adjusted for inflation have been falling, and wages have lagged too, so affordability gains may come slowly.

Sellers. The creator urges sellers to price to the market and drop the idea of what the home "should" fetch. The cost of overpricing can be large, as we show in our case study on pricing mistakes that turned a $15,000 gap into a $215,000 loss. Ask your agent for recent sold comps, not just active listings, and consider how your purchase price and equity give you room to adjust.

Current owners. Review your insurance at renewal. Compare coverage limits, deductibles and exclusions, not just premiums, because the cheapest policy may cover less. Check whether your escrow will rise next year and budget accordingly. If you are in a flood-prone area, confirm what your flood coverage actually includes.

None of this is personalized financial advice; talk to a licensed agent, lender or financial adviser about your situation.

What to watch next

Several indicators will show whether stubborn sellers are giving way:

1. Price-cut share and concessions. A rise above the roughly 20% and 50% levels would suggest sellers are capitulating.
2. Active inventory and new listings. Watch for a sustained rise, not a one-month bump. Redfin and Realtor.com publish regular reports.
3. Mortgage rates. The weekly Freddie Mac average will show whether rates move toward the levels the creator expects.
4. Delistings. A jump in withdrawn listings would indicate sellers are choosing to wait rather than cut.
5. Labor market data. Unemployment is the trigger Bordenaro flags for forced selling.
6. Insurance costs. The next ICE Mortgage Monitor will show whether premiums keep climbing.

Prices rarely fall in a straight line. The more likely path in a market like this is gradual: more cuts, more concessions and slower sales, with bigger swings only if a shock forces owners to sell.