Sellers Outnumber Buyers by a Record: What Redfin's Data Means

Do sellers outnumbering buyers really change the deal for you?

Yes, it changes the balance of power, though not equally everywhere. Redfin reports that sellers now outnumber buyers by the widest margin in its records, which begin in 2013. In a video published October 29, 2026, the creator Michael Bordenaro Clips walks through the figures: about 1.5 million sellers against roughly 929,000 buyers, a gap of more than 600,000.

In practical terms, buyers who are financially ready have more room to ask for price cuts, repairs and closing-cost help. Sellers face more competition from neighboring listings and from builders offering incentives. But the same video stresses an important caveat: a buyer's market only helps people who can qualify at today's prices and mortgage rates.

This article lays out the numbers, explains how Redfin measures market balance, adds context the video skips, and notes where the argument is weaker than it sounds.

The numbers behind the record gap

The figures below come from Redfin data as presented by Michael Bordenaro Clips. Treat them as the creator's summary of Redfin's reporting and confirm them against Redfin's own releases.

The creator argues that these readings are unlike anything in Redfin's series, including the soft stretch that followed the 2008 crash. He also says he would not fully agree that today is a better time to buy than the post-crash years, a point worth taking seriously, since prices and financing costs were very different then. For a deeper comparison, see our look at whether this market is really worse than 2008.

How Redfin defines a buyer's market, and why 63% stands out

Redfin's market-balance measure compares the number of active buyers with the number of active sellers. As a general rule, a buyer's market is one where sellers outnumber buyers by a meaningful margin, and Redfin has used a threshold of about 10% for that label. A seller's market is the mirror image.

Against that 10% bar, a 63% gap is far beyond the line. That is the creator's central point: this is not a marginal buyer's market but an unusually lopsided one. (The video's wording of the threshold is a little garbled, so we have described it in the conventional direction. See the notes for the editor.)

It also helps to understand what "buyers" means in this kind of measure. It is an estimate of people actively looking and able to transact, not everyone who would like to own a home. When rates and prices push households out, the buyer count falls even if the desire to buy has not changed. That is why a record seller-to-buyer gap can come from weak demand as much as from a flood of new listings.

Cancellations, pending sales and the rate backdrop

The video points to several signals that line up with weak demand.

Contract cancellations

Redfin's figure for September was 14.5% of pending sales canceled, which the creator says is the highest for any September in its records. He adds that only the first weeks of the pandemic, March and April 2020, saw higher readings, and that the rate stayed under 12% from 2017 through 2019.

Some metros ran hotter than the national figure:

Cancellations tend to rise when buyers find inspection problems, lose financing, get cold feet on price, or discover they can get a better deal elsewhere. In a market with many listings, buyers simply have more alternatives.

Pending sales and the forecasts

The creator also cites a roughly 4% drop in pending home sales and a Zillow projection that home sales could fall by almost another 4% next year. He then turns to Fannie Mae, saying it raised its mortgage-rate outlook. According to him, the earlier forecast was about 6.8% for the fourth quarter of 2026 and 6.7% for 2027, while the new one is about 7.4% for the fourth quarter and 7.5% for all of 2027.

Those rate figures are the video's, and they conflict with one another: the creator also mentions rates "close to 8%" for well-qualified borrowers and about 7.5% for the 30-year fixed. Weekly averages from Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey are the cleanest reference, and you should check the latest reading before building a budget. Our explainer on how inflation feeds into mortgage rates covers why rates can stay stubborn even when the housing market is soft.

Where buyers hold the most leverage

Redfin says buyers have the most negotiating power in Miami among major metros, according to the video. The strongest buyer's markets, as shown on screen, are concentrated in the Sun Belt, including parts of Florida, Texas, Tennessee, Nevada, Georgia and Arizona.

That pattern fits what many of these metros share: a surge of new construction, rising insurance and carrying costs in some states, and many sellers who bought near the peak. Builders in particular have leaned on rate buy-downs and price cuts, which the creator says puts resale owners in direct competition with new homes. Our report on builder incentives and price cuts shows how that competition works in practice.

The reverse is also true. The creator notes that a few seller's markets remain, and that some sellers there could still net more than they would have two or three years ago. Market balance is a local story, so a national headline should be a starting point, not a verdict.

Limits and counterpoints to the creator's view

Michael Bordenaro Clips is forceful in his conclusions, and a few points deserve a more careful reading.

• Balance is not the same as price direction. A record gap suggests pressure on prices and terms, but home prices can stay flat or edge up while sales volumes shrink, especially when many owners hold low-rate mortgages and can afford to wait. The video's claim that nothing on the horizon helps sellers is an opinion, not a certainty.
• Forecasts are not facts. Fannie Mae and Zillow projections get revised often. A forecast of rates near 7.5% through 2027 is one scenario among several.
• National averages hide big differences. A 63% national gap does not describe a tight market in parts of the Northeast or Midwest, where inventory has stayed lean.
• Affordability cuts both ways. The creator himself says the buyer's market is real only for those who can afford it. A buyer who qualifies on a stretched budget has little protection if prices slip after purchase.
• Disclosure. The creator says he has a partnership with the Reventure app, which he recommends for price forecasts. That does not make the data wrong, but readers should weigh any paid forecast tool independently.
• Past advice is hindsight. He says he urged people to sell two or three years ago. That was right in some markets and not in others.

For a broader sanity check on whether stress is building, our piece on what demand, inventory and default data show is a useful companion.

What this means for you

This is general information, not personal financial advice. Your income, savings, timeline and local market all matter.

If you are buying

• Ask for what the market is already giving: credits toward closing costs, a rate buy-down, repairs, or a lower price. When roughly half of sellers are offering concessions, as the video reports, asking is not unusual.
• Compare resale listings with new construction in the same area. Builders may offer financing incentives that resale owners cannot match.
• Stress-test your budget at current rates and at a slightly higher rate. Do not count on refinancing as a plan.
• Keep inspection, appraisal and financing contingencies unless you have a clear reason to waive them, particularly with cancellations running high.
• See our guide on rates, closing costs and negotiation tips for a step-by-step approach.

If you are selling

• Price against current competing listings, not last year's sales. Even attractive homes can sit if the asking price is out of line with what local buyers can qualify for.
• Prepare to offer concessions. A rate buy-down or closing credit can be cheaper than a deep price cut, but compare the cost for your situation.
• If you have flexibility, weigh the cost of waiting. The video argues conditions will not improve soon, but that is a forecast, and carrying costs on a vacant home add up.
• Choose an agent who can show recent closed prices and days on market for your exact neighborhood.

If you are an owner who is staying put

• A falling buyer count does not change your mortgage payment. If you have a fixed-rate loan and no need to move, a soft market is mainly a headline.
• Track your local price trend before refinancing, tapping equity or counting on a sale price in your plans.

What to watch next

Several indicators will show whether this gap is widening or starting to close:

1. Redfin's next market-balance reading. A shrinking seller surplus would suggest buyers are returning or listings are being pulled.
2. Weekly mortgage rates. Check Freddie Mac's PMMS and the FRED series for the 30-year rate.
3. Cancellation rates. A sustained reading above recent norms points to fragile demand.
4. Price cuts and delistings. If more sellers withdraw instead of cutting, prices may hold up better than the inventory data implies.
5. Revisions to forecasts. Look for updates from Fannie Mae and Zillow after the next rate and jobs reports.

The bottom line from this video is straightforward: the numbers favor buyers who are financially ready, and they challenge sellers who are priced for an earlier market. The right move depends less on the national headline than on your local listings, your budget and how long you plan to stay.