Housing Market Record Low: Is It Really Worse Than 2008?

Is the housing market really at a record low?

Short answer: on activity, largely yes. On the "worse than 2008" framing, only partly. Real estate investor and agent Jon Brooks, in a video published October 28, 2026, says pending home sales just hit a record low, and that sales, inventory and builder sentiment now look as weak as, or weaker than, the financial crisis. The contract-signing and rate numbers he cites are real pressure points. But 2008 was defined by forced selling and a deep national price slide, and those two ingredients are not yet clearly present.

This article walks through the figures from the video, adds context on what each measure means, and flags where the comparison stretches.

What the video says about sales

Brooks leads with the pending home sales index, which tracks signed purchase contracts and is usually seen as a preview of closings a month or two later. He says it fell 7.3% in the latest month to a record low. He pairs that with existing-home sales, which he puts at 3.99 million on an annualized basis, down from more than 6 million at the 2021 peak.

A few points of context help here:

• Pending sales are an index, not a count. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) publishes it, and the series only goes back to the early 2000s, so "record low" means lowest in that window.
• Existing-home sales are reported as a seasonally adjusted annual rate. That is why a 3.99 million figure does not simply mean that many homes sold in a month.
• Seasonality matters. Brooks notes that activity tends to peak in spring and fade after school starts, so the meaningful comparison is with the same month a year earlier, not with the previous month.

For perspective, annual existing-home sales in 2023 came in around 4 million, which NAR described as the lowest in nearly three decades. So a reading near 4 million is not new territory, but a new low in contract signings would mean the market is still sliding rather than stabilizing.

Affordability: rates, payments and income

The center of Brooks's argument is affordability. The figures he cites:

The mortgage rate figure appears to refer to Freddie Mac's weekly survey, which you can check directly through its Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Brooks argues that rates, more than prices, explain the rise in monthly cost, since prices have only eased slightly while borrowing costs jumped. That is broadly consistent with how payments are calculated: on a typical loan, a few percentage points of rate adds far more monthly cost than a few percent of price.

He also suggests rates could hit 8% by year-end and that one or two more Fed hikes are expected. Treat that as his view, not a forecast. Rate paths depend on inflation, oil prices and Treasury demand. For a deeper look at how the bond market feeds into mortgage pricing, see our piece on Treasury yields and mortgage rates.

Inventory and days on market

On supply, Brooks cites Redfin data showing sellers outnumbering buyers by more than 500,000, and he says he has seen figures near 600,000. He also reports that typical homes now sit about 61 days before going under contract, versus 41 in 2021, and that listings with price cuts are 20.8% of the total, up from 19.9% a year ago (he attributes this to Realtor.com).

Those are modest year-over-year shifts rather than collapse-style jumps. A 20.8% price-cut share is elevated, but it is also a sign of a market adjusting through negotiation instead of freezing. Days on market of two months is closer to a pre-2020 normal than to a crisis. Brooks himself says he expects days on market to return to normal levels by around year-end.

Where he sees the sharpest weakness is new construction, which is covered below.

New construction: where the stress is most visible

The video reports:

• 113,000 finished new homes with no buyer, which he calls almost as bad as the financial crisis.
• Pulte Group incentives at 10.4% of price, up from 2.2% in 2022. He mentions a separate Lennar figure of 13%.
• Median new-home sales price down from a 460,000 peak to 393,000, about 14%.
• Builder confidence at 29, which he describes as the lowest since 2012.
• Housing starts at 1.22 million, down 7.4% from a year earlier.

Brooks adds the 10.4% incentive to the 14% price drop and gets about 24.2% in total effective discount. That arithmetic is a rough shortcut, since the two measures cover different bases and time frames, and incentives like rate buydowns do not translate one-to-one into price. Still, the direction is clear: builders are paying to move homes. Our coverage of new-home sales, incentives and price cuts goes deeper on how those deals work, and our look at Florida new-construction resale losses shows the risk for people who bought at peak builder prices and now need to sell.

Brooks also argues that the country never had a true shortage, only a mismatch between the homes built and what local wages can afford. Many economists would push back on that. Estimates of the national shortfall vary widely, and the answer differs by region and price tier. A reasonable reading is that both can be true: some markets are oversupplied at today's prices while others remain tight.

Prices: falling in places, not everywhere

Brooks cites Lance Lambert's finding that 66 of roughly 300 large markets have falling prices, and says the declines are no longer confined to Florida and Texas. He names Austin, Asheville, Savannah and Hawaii as examples, and says three Florida metros rank in the top 15 for price drops. He believes national prices may turn negative year over year and that headline data understates reality because repair credits and concessions do not show up in recorded sale prices.

He also shares county-level figures from his firm's own median-price work: Lake County, Florida, about 29.2% below its post-2021 peak, and Duval County about 1% below. He acknowledges that median sold price is a blunt tool, and that repeat-sales indexes, which track the same home over time, are more reliable. See our look at Florida home prices falling by county for another view.

His Jacksonville investor model, from his days in investment banking, suggested prices would need to fall roughly 31% to 43% from the October 2022 peak for investors to step in. That is a model output built on assumptions about rents and returns, not an observed outcome.

How this compares with 2008

This is where the video's headline needs the most care.

What does look similar or worse: contract signings, existing-home sales and builder sentiment are all near multi-decade lows. Buyer sentiment, at 85% saying it is a bad time to buy, is worse than it was in the crisis years by the creator's account.

What looks different:

• Prices. After the 2006 peak, the S&P Case-Shiller national index fell by roughly a quarter or more over several years. Nothing in the video's national data shows a decline of that scale. The 14% drop in new-home median price and falling prices in about one-fifth of large markets are meaningful, but they are not a nationwide collapse.
• Forced selling. 2008 was driven by adjustable-rate loans, weak underwriting and a wave of foreclosures. Today, many owners hold fixed-rate mortgages well below current rates, which is exactly why Brooks says they are locked in and not selling. That keeps resale inventory tighter than in 2008. For current default trends, see Is a mortgage crisis coming?
• Equity. Brooks says the typical buyer is now about 60 years old and carrying substantial equity. Equity-rich owners can wait or cut prices without defaulting.
• Rental market. Rental vacancy at 7.3%, the highest since 2017 per the video, suggests softness, though that is a pre-pandemic level, not a crisis peak. Brooks's claims of rents down 10% to 20% in many counties, and 30% to 40% in some Sun Belt pockets, conflict with the roughly 3% national rent growth he also cites from FRED, which shows how local the picture is.

So "record low activity" is defensible, while "worse than 2008" mixes a volume comparison with a price and credit comparison that the data does not yet support.

Limits and counterpoints to the creator's view

Brooks is a Florida and Georgia agent and runs a business built around local market data and lead generation, and his examples lean toward the Sun Belt. He admits the Northeast has not had the same boom-and-bust cycle. Several of his conclusions are predictions, not facts: wages staying flat, prices having to fall far enough to match income, and the government keeping rates down to protect home values. Other analysts argue that slow inventory growth and a large cohort of aging homeowners could limit price declines even with weak demand.

His demographic argument, that a wave of boomer estates will flood the market, is also a long-run scenario. Homes inherited by family members are often kept, rented or sold gradually, and timing is uncertain. And a few of the transcript's numbers, such as the exact mortgage rate and the price level of the 2022 peak, should be verified against the primary sources before being relied on.

What this means for you

Buyers. Weak demand and rising inventory can mean more room to negotiate, especially on new construction, where concessions are large. But a 7%-plus rate is a real cost. Compare builder incentives against a lower price, and model your payment at several rates. If you are using FHA or VA financing in a development with more phases still to come, think about resale risk. Our guide to buying a home today covers closing costs and negotiation.

Sellers. Pricing realistically at the start matters more than in the past. Homes in good condition and in desirable spots still move, but a stale listing with repeated cuts tends to sell for less. Expect buyers to ask for repairs and credits.

Owners who are not moving. A fixed low rate and equity are strong protections. A local price decline matters mostly if you must sell or want to refinance. Keep an eye on your own county's data rather than national averages.

Small investors. With Treasury yields elevated, rental properties have to clear a higher return hurdle. Verify local rents and vacancy rates, not just national figures.

What to watch next

• The next pending home sales and existing-home sales releases from NAR, to see whether this decline is a one-month dip or a trend.
• Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate and the Fed's next decision.
• Census data on new-home inventory, starts and rental vacancy.
• Same-month, year-over-year price data for your own metro.

This article is general information, not personalized financial advice. For decisions about buying, selling or refinancing, talk with a licensed professional who knows your local market.