The short answer: stable on paper, soft underneath
If you are asking whether the housing market is still strong, the honest answer is that it depends on which number you read. The headline figures for September looked fine. Existing-home sales edged up and the median price rose. But the forward-looking indicators, mainly contracts signed during the month, point the other way.
That gap is the core of a recent video from the YouTube channel Michael Bordenaro Clips, which argues that optimistic headlines are glossing over weakening demand. This article uses the figures he cites as a starting point, adds context on how each measure works, and notes where his view deserves caution. Nothing here is personal financial advice.
What the September headline numbers say
According to the figures discussed in the video, which come from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing-home sales rose 1.5% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million. The median existing-home price rose 1.3% from a year earlier to $417,500.
Here is how those numbers and the related forecasts line up:
| Measure | Figure cited | Source named in the video |
|---|---|---|
| Existing-home sales, September | 3.99 million (seasonally adjusted annual rate), up 1.5% | NAR |
| Median existing-home price | $417,500, up 1.3% year over year | NAR |
| Pending sales, September | Down 4% from August; largest monthly drop in over 3 years | Redfin |
| Pending sales by state | Fell in all 50 states, a first in about 3 years | Redfin |
| 2026 full-year home sales forecast | About 4.1 million, up 0.8% | Zillow |
| 2027 home sales forecast | Down 3.5% | Zillow |
Two points stand out. First, a 1.5% monthly gain is modest. A "seasonally adjusted annual rate" simply scales one month's pace to a full year after smoothing out normal seasonal swings, which makes months comparable. Second, 3.99 million sits close to the roughly 4 million annual pace the video says the market has held since 2023.
Why a sales increase does not equal strong demand
Existing-home sales count closings. A home that closes in September was typically put under contract 30 to 60 days earlier. Bordenaro points out that many of September's closings were signed in July or August, when mortgage rates were still in the sixes.
That timing matters. September's sales number tells you about buyer decisions made a couple of months ago. It says less about how buyers are behaving today, especially if rates have since risen. The video notes that rates climbed in September even as closings ticked up, which fits this lag explanation rather than contradicting it.
You can check current rate levels at Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which publishes a weekly average. For a longer look at how rates, prices and inventory fit together, see our housing market reality check on prices, inventory and rates.
The price figure and inflation
The creator argues that a 1.3% annual gain in the median price is not keeping up with inflation, so prices are falling in real terms. That logic is sound as arithmetic if consumer inflation is running above 1.3%, but check the latest Consumer Price Index release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the current rate rather than relying on the video.
Also remember that the median is the middle sale price in a given month. It shifts with the mix of homes that sell. If more lower-priced homes close, the median can move even when no individual home changes in value.
Pending sales: the signal analysts watch for what comes next
A pending sale means a seller has accepted a buyer's contract but the deal has not closed. Because pendings lead closings, they are often treated as an early read on the next few months of sales.
The video cites Redfin data showing that pending sales fell 4% from August to September, which it describes as the steepest monthly drop in over three years. It also says pendings declined in all 50 states for the first time in about three years, and that the overall level was the lowest outside 2023 since April 2020, at the start of the pandemic.
Treat the comparison to April 2020 carefully. The video's wording on that point is loose, and the exact metric and baseline are not spelled out. Redfin's data center is the place to confirm the specific series and time period before you quote it.
Still, the direction is consistent with other demand indicators we have covered, such as falling home showings in Zillow's ShowingTime data and the broader question of whether buyer demand has really faded.
The forecast: a small 2026 gain, then a dip
Zillow's forecast, as described in the video, calls for a 0.8% rise in 2026 home sales to roughly 4.1 million, followed by a 3.5% decline in 2027. Bordenaro stresses that this projection comes from Zillow, not from him, and uses it to argue that sellers will face weaker demand next year.
Some context on why forecasts like this matter and where they can go wrong:
- Sales near multi-decade lows. The video says annual sales were normally close to 5 million before 2023 and have hovered near 4 million since. Even a flat year keeps the market in a historically quiet range.
- Mortgage rates drive the forecast. The creator expects rates to rise, mentioning a possible move toward 8%. That is his projection, not an established fact. Our explainer on Treasury yields and mortgage rates looks at what that kind of path could mean and what would need to happen for it.
- Forecasts are revised. A projection built on today's rate and job data can shift quickly if either changes.
Where the creator's view needs balance
Bordenaro takes a clearly bearish stance, and a few counterpoints are worth keeping in mind.
One month is one data point. Monthly pending-sales figures are volatile. A large drop can partly reverse the next month, and a single reading does not establish a trend. Redfin and NAR also measure different things and can diverge for a stretch.
A stable market is not a collapsing one. Sales of around 4 million a year are low, but the video's own data shows they have been steady for about three years. Prices are still edging up nationally rather than crashing. "Weak volume" and "falling prices" are different conditions.
National numbers hide local differences. The video says pending sales fell in every state, but the size of the drop varies. Some metros are seeing price cuts and rising inventory, while others remain tight. For examples of that variation, see our reports on Florida home prices by county.
Framing of motives is an opinion. The video suggests NAR is promoting good news to push buyers into the market. NAR is a trade group, so its framing is worth reading critically, but the underlying sales figures are standard, widely reported data. The same skepticism applies to any commentator with a stake in how you act, including channels that refer viewers to agents.
What this means for you
If you are a buyer
The softer contract activity may give you more room to negotiate than you had a year or two ago, but that varies by area. Bordenaro encourages buyers to make offers based on what they believe is fair value, even if they risk annoying a seller, and says a serious seller will usually reconsider. That can be reasonable when supported by recent comparable sales, which are the most useful evidence in any negotiation.
The more important rule is the one he also states: do not buy because a headline makes you feel rushed. Base the decision on your budget, your job stability, how long you plan to stay, and a payment you can carry if rates stay high. Ask a lender for a current quote rather than assuming a rate.
If you are a seller
The video's advice is that sellers who are thinking about listing should do so sooner rather than wait one or two years, citing Zillow's expected 3.5% drop in 2027 sales alongside expectations of higher rates. That is one viewpoint, and it rests on forecasts that could prove wrong.
What is more broadly supported is that pricing realistically at the start matters. Buyers have been cautious, and listings that start too high tend to sit. Our pieces on sellers waiting for lower mortgage rates and on how one pricing mistake became a six-figure loss show how holding out can cost more than expected. A local agent can show you recent sold prices, not just asking prices.
If you are a current owner not planning to move
A slow sales market matters less to you. Your concerns are likely your payment, your equity and your insurance and tax costs. National sales volume does not change your mortgage terms. If you have a low fixed rate, there is rarely urgency to act on headlines.
What to watch next
- Next pending-sales readings. If Redfin's and NAR's pending figures keep falling in coming months, that would support the cautious view. A rebound would suggest September was noise.
- Weekly mortgage rates. Freddie Mac's survey is the benchmark. Watch whether rates keep rising, since higher rates would pressure both buyers and the Zillow forecast.
- Inventory and price cuts. More listings and larger discounts would give buyers leverage. Tight supply would keep prices firm even with low sales.
- Policy responses. The creator says federal officials are exploring ways to lift buyer demand and plans to cover this in a follow-up video. Until details are confirmed from official sources, treat any such plans as unverified.
The takeaway is not that the market is broken or booming. It is quiet, rate-sensitive and uneven. The September closings were slightly better than August, but the contracts signed that month suggest the next few reports may be less encouraging. Reading both sets of numbers together gives a clearer picture than either headline alone.