Which Florida County Is Falling Fastest Now?
Calhoun County. On Zillow's September 2026 numbers, the typical Calhoun home is valued at about $166,700, down roughly 5.35% over 12 months, or about $9,400. That is the steepest one-year decline among all 67 Florida counties. A month earlier, Calhoun ranked third. Charlotte County, which led the previous update, has dropped to fourth.
The bigger story is geographic. According to the YouTube channel FloridaPulse, which re-ranks Zillow's county tables each month, the fastest declines have moved off the Gulf Coast and into small North Florida counties. That does not mean the Gulf Coast has recovered. It means the one-year math shifted, and a few tiny markets jumped the queue.
This article uses FloridaPulse's September 2026 countdown of Zillow's Home Value Index (ZHVI) as its starting point and adds context on how to read it. ZHVI is Zillow's estimate of the typical home value in an area, and it is a modeled figure rather than a record of every sale.
The September 2026 Top 10 at a Glance
FloridaPulse ranks counties by the 12-month change in typical value. Here is the countdown, with last month's position for comparison.
| Rank | County | Typical value | 1-year change | Below own peak | August rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Calhoun | ~$166,700 | -5.35% | 10.6% (peak Aug 2024) | 3 |
| 2 | Hendry | ~$270,200 | -4.1% | 7.7% (peak Apr 2024) | 4 |
| 3 | Lee | ~$334,500 | -3.5% | 18.9% (peak Aug 2022) | 2 |
| 4 | Charlotte | ~$298,900 | -3.3% | 23.9% (peak Aug 2022) | 1 |
| 5 | Osceola | ~$359,200 | -2.9% | 8.8% (peak Sep 2022) | 7 |
| 6 | Glades | ~$257,000 | -2.8% | 4.2% (peak Jun 2025) | 8 |
| 7 | Franklin | ~$422,200 | -2.51% | 9% (peak Jul 2022) | 6 |
| 8 | Holmes | ~$181,300 | -2.48% | 9.3% (peak Jul 2022) | 14 |
| 9 | Manatee | ~$408,300 | -2.46% | 15% (peak Aug 2022) | 5 |
| 10 | Madison | ~$206,100 | -2.4% | ~3% (peak Mar 2026) | 18 |
Some broader figures from the same update:
- 38 Florida counties are worth less than they were in September 2025.
- 64 of the 67 counties sit below their own peak.
- Nine counties are more than 10% under their peak, up from eight in August. Calhoun is the one that joined.
- Zillow's national index set a new high in September, up about 1.2% year over year, according to the video.
Notice how tight ranks seven through nine are. Franklin, Holmes and Manatee are separated by a few hundredths of a percentage point, so their order could flip on the next release.
Why the Order Changed in One Month
Three forces reshuffled the list.
Charlotte paused, and the calendar helped
Charlotte County's typical value rose in July, August and September, adding about $1,770 in total. That ended a long run of monthly declines that began in the fall of 2023. FloridaPulse also points to arithmetic: Charlotte lost about $4,000 in the single month of September 2025. When that month leaves the 12-month window, the annual figure improves even if the house is worth about the same.
This is called a base effect, and it is worth understanding whenever you read year-over-year numbers. A decline can look smaller simply because a bad month dropped out of the comparison.
New entrants from small counties
Madison jumped from 18th to 10th, and Holmes from 14th to 8th. Holmes lost about 1.45% (roughly $2,660) in September alone, the second-largest one-month drop in Florida, and its fourth monthly decline in a row. These are counties with roughly 18,700 and 20,000 residents, where a handful of sales can move the estimate.
Hendry got worse
Hendry is one of the few counties where the annual decline deepened, from 3.9% to 4.1%, after eight consecutive monthly drops. In the Clewiston metro, which matches the county, about 238 homes were for sale in September, versus 208 a year earlier and 120 in September 2019, according to the video. Roughly one in five listings carried a price cut.
Calhoun County: Why a Tiny Market Moves So Fast
Calhoun's typical value fell 1.64% in September alone, about $2,780, the largest one-month drop in the state. FloridaPulse notes that this single month exceeds the 1.38% decline Collier County has posted over a full year. Calhoun has now fallen four months in a row, about $9,000 since May.
The explanation is size. The Census Bureau's July 2025 estimate puts Calhoun at about 13,300 residents, compared with more than 875,000 in Lee County. When few homes change hands, each sale carries more weight in a model like Zillow's. Earlier this year, Calhoun rose four straight months, from about $170,800 in January to about $175,700 in May, before reversing.
Context matters here too. Neighboring Liberty County is up almost 5% and set a new high in September. Two small Panhandle counties side by side are moving in opposite directions, which is a hallmark of thin data rather than a regional collapse.
Long-term owners are still well ahead. FloridaPulse says the typical Calhoun home was about $116,000 in December 2019, so an owner from then is roughly $50,000 ahead. The creator suggests checking a listing's price history and the county property appraiser's record of the last sale. If an asking price sits far above what the owner paid in 2024, there may be room to negotiate.
The Gulf Coast: Slower Annual Drops, Deeper Holes
A ranking by one-year change can hide where the biggest cumulative losses sit. The Southwest Florida markets still show the deepest gaps from their highs.
- Charlotte (Punta Gorda): 23.9% below its August 2022 peak, about $93,875. FloridaPulse says no other Florida county is even 20% under its peak. Punta Gorda metro listings took about 105 days to go under contract, down from 118 a year earlier. Homes for sale fell to about 2,940 from about 3,900. Zillow still forecasts the metro down 1.8% over 12 months.
- Lee (Cape Coral): values have fallen for about 37 consecutive months. Zillow's Cape Coral metro forecast is down 3.6% over the next year, which the video calls the weakest of any Florida metro. Roughly eight in ten homes sold in August went for less than list, and a typical listing took about 118 days to go under contract.
- Manatee: dropped from fifth to ninth because values edged up in August and September. The video says inland areas such as Ellenton and Parrish carry the decline, and Sarasota County fell out of the top 10 after three months of gains.
For more on how far below asking price Southwest Florida sellers are closing, see our report on Southwest Florida home price cuts. For a rate-sensitivity view, read Can Southwest Florida withstand 8% mortgage rates?
Counties still rising
Not all of Florida is sliding. According to the video, Taylor is up 6.1%, Hamilton 5.9%, and Lafayette and Liberty 4.9% each. Palm Beach County is up about 2.25%, the biggest one-month gain in September. Pinellas turned slightly positive at about 0.2%, though it remains roughly 10% under its peak. Miami-Dade is up about 0.6% and only around 3% off its high.
Flagler is a useful caution: almost flat over the year (down 0.2%) but about 13.5% below its August 2022 peak. A flat annual reading can sit on top of a deep gap.
Limits and Counterpoints
FloridaPulse is open about several caveats, and readers should weigh more.
- Small samples. In counties of 13,000 to 20,000 people, one month of movement may reflect a few sales or model adjustments. The creator calls a one-month figure in Calhoun a "warning light, not a verdict."
- Modeled values. ZHVI estimates the typical home, smoothed across property types and sizes. It does not tell you what your house would sell for.
- Long-run gains. Most of these counties remain far above their December 2019 values. Glades is up about 77% since then, Madison about 65% and Hendry about 70%, per the video. Charlotte's gain is the smallest of the ten, around 31%.
- Forecasts are uncertain. Zillow projects Clewiston up 0.7% next year even as Hendry values fall, a reminder that forecasts and trends can diverge.
- One data source. Redfin, Realtor.com and local MLS data can show different pictures. Cross-checking is wise, especially for rural counties.
What This Means for You
Buyers. Falling county averages do not guarantee a deal on any specific home. Look at days on market, the share of listings with price cuts, and the seller's purchase history. In markets like Cape Coral, where most August sales closed below list, negotiating room is documented. In thin markets, ask for recent comparable sales within the same neighborhood.
Sellers. Last spring's neighborhood sale price may not hold this winter, especially in Calhoun, Holmes or Lee. Price against current comparable closings rather than peak-era memories. Our piece on mistakes when selling your home shows how an overpriced listing can cost far more than a modest price cut.
Owners who are not selling. A lower index reading changes your paper equity, not your mortgage payment or cash flow. Those who bought near the 2022 peak in Charlotte, Lee, Franklin or Manatee are most exposed; long-time owners generally hold large cumulative gains. For a wider look at national conditions, see the housing market reality check.
This is general information, not personal financial advice. A local agent or appraiser can price an individual property.
What to Watch Next
FloridaPulse plans to repeat the countdown on Zillow's October data. Three questions will matter:
- Did Charlotte's pause hold? Another monthly gain would suggest stabilization; a drop would suggest the summer was a blip.
- Did Calhoun keep falling? A fifth consecutive monthly decline would strengthen the case that the drop is more than noise.
- Does Lee ever turn? A 37-month streak and a negative Zillow forecast make it the key large-county test.
Zillow publishes its county-level ZHVI through its research data page, and the Census Bureau's QuickFacts tool is a handy way to check county population when judging how much weight to give a swing. The county that is falling fastest is not always the market that is weakest, and the gap between those two ideas is the main takeaway of this update.