The short answer: a stress test with thin supply
Mortgage rates above 7.5% for some borrowers, and talk of 8%, are about to test whether Southwest Florida's recovery is durable. Early data suggests demand is cooling only slightly, while the number of homes for sale keeps shrinking. That combination can hold prices steady even when affordability is poor.
That is the read from Ben Grieco, a Southwest Florida real estate agent who walked Naples Bay while going through the latest Florida Realtors figures for September. He notes that September was the first month in which sellers had to find buyers in the higher-rate environment. Statewide pending sales were about 2% lower than a year earlier, which is a small dip against a strong fall in 2025. He also cites a Fannie Mae forecast that rates will stay elevated through the end of the year and could rise further in 2027. Check the current picture yourself in Freddie Mac's weekly survey and Fannie Mae's forecast page.
What the September statewide numbers show
Grieco compares September 2026 with September 2025 for Florida single-family homes. The headline figures are below.
| Florida single-family, Sept. 2026 vs. Sept. 2025 | Reading |
|---|---|
| Closed sales | Down 3.5% |
| Median sales price | Up 1.2% |
| Average sales price | Up about 10% |
| Pending sales | Down about 2% |
| Active inventory | Down about 10% |
| Months of supply | 4.4 |
| Share of sales paid in cash | 28% |
The gap between the median and the average is worth pausing on. The median is the middle sale price, so it barely moves when a handful of expensive homes close. The average gets pulled up by those sales. A 1.2% median gain next to a 10% average gain tells you the top of the market was busy while typical homes were roughly flat.
Months of supply, explained
Months of supply estimates how long current listings would last at the recent sales pace. Grieco treats anything under about 5.5 as favoring sellers, roughly 5.5 as balanced and above 6 as favoring buyers. Analysts draw these lines in slightly different places, and conditions vary by price range and neighborhood, so treat them as a guide. By his thresholds, Florida's 4.4 puts single-family homes back in seller territory after drifting toward balance earlier in 2026.
County by county: Collier, Sarasota, Lee and Charlotte
The four counties he tracks are moving differently, which is a reminder that "Southwest Florida" is several markets, not one.
| County | Sales | Inventory (YoY) | Months of supply | Price notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collier (Naples) | Roughly stable | Down 13% | 5.5 | Median up a few percent; average up 31% |
| Sarasota | Up 5% | Listings down 16% | 3.7 | Median up 7.8%; average up 52% |
| Lee (Fort Myers) | Up 0.3% | Down 13% | 5.2 | Prices flat |
| Charlotte | Pending down 0.5% | Down 20% | 4.9 | Median up 4.2%; average up 6.3% |
Collier County: balanced, with luxury skewing the average
Collier's supply sits near 5.5 months, which Grieco calls balanced. He cautions that the county covers very different places, including Naples, Marco Island and Immokalee, so a county figure hides a lot. The 31% jump in the average price versus a low-single-digit median gain is a classic sign that high-end closings are distorting the picture.
Sarasota County: the tightest market in the group
Sarasota is the standout. Sales rose 5%, and months of supply is 3.7, a level Grieco says the county has not seen in years. He reports the median single-family price up 7.8%. The average rose 52%, from about $645,000 to $985,000, which he attributes to luxury sales and which he argues is why the average should be ignored.
Inventory tells the story. Sarasota peaked at roughly 4,500 single-family listings in April 2025 and had 2,629 at the latest update, about 40% fewer. Grieco acknowledges that a reader in the comments felt there were still plenty of homes to choose from. That is a fair point: a county-wide seller's market can still feel like a buyer's market in a specific price band or neighborhood.
Lee County: improving, but still the laggard
Lee County has been recovering more slowly than its neighbors. Sales edged up 0.3%, prices were flat and inventory fell 13%. Months of supply is 5.2, which Grieco puts in balanced territory. He says it was around 6 to 7 a year ago and above 9 at points last year. Roughly 6,500 homes are listed now, versus more than 10,000 at the peak. Lee is also the only county he highlights where pending sales rose, while the stronger counties saw them dip.
Charlotte County: prices inching up as listings plunge
Charlotte County, home to the Punta Gorda metro area, was among the hardest-hit markets in the country during the correction, in Grieco's telling. Now its median price is up 4.2%, inventory is down 20% and supply is 4.9 months. He says homes are taking nearly 30% less time to go under contract than last year, and active listings are around 2,000, versus a peak above 4,000. Grieco adds that the Isles neighborhood has tightened even more.
Why cash buyers gain ground as rates climb
The 28% cash share is the number Grieco says surprises people most. Many assume Florida is mostly cash, but it also means more than 70% of buyers need a mortgage and feel every rate move directly.
His argument is that higher rates widen the cash advantage in practical ways, not just in monthly payments:
- No rate-lock exposure. He describes a deal where a septic repair pushed a closing from August to October. The buyer had to pay to extend a rate lock while quoted rates moved from the high 6s toward the high 7s.
- No lender timeline. Long closings are a risk when rates are climbing, and lenders limit how far a lock can be extended.
- Cleaner negotiations. In new construction, delays raise an awkward question about who pays for an extended lock.
Grieco's caution is that a cash offer is not automatically easier. The money still has to arrive at closing either way. But in a rising-rate market, a seller comparing two offers has a reason to weigh the one without financing risk.
New construction: buydowns and a tax trap
Grieco says some builders are advertising rates around 4.99%, while other buyers are quoted in the 7s or 8s, sometimes with a buydown. Those offers come with conditions. In his example, the loan must be FHA with around 3.5% down. Terms vary by builder and change often, and he stresses he is not a lender. Resale sellers cannot easily match this pricing, which is one reason the new-home segment competes so hard for buyers right now.
The land-tax problem
He spends real time on a recurring mistake. In Florida, a new home without a certificate of occupancy may show a tax bill based on the land alone. Once it closes, the property is reassessed at the purchase price. Grieco says he sees owners hit with escrow increases of $500, $1,000 or $1,500 a month the following year because nobody explained this. He adds that the MLS and the state are moving to stop listings from displaying land-only taxes.
For readers, the takeaway is practical: never treat the listed tax figure on an unfinished new home as your future bill. Ask your lender or agent for an estimate after reassessment. For a deeper look at how payments get squeezed, see Why Is It So Hard to Buy a House? Rates, Prices and Payments.
Will sellers return in the winter season?
The big unknown is listing behavior. Grieco expects the fall and winter selling season to reveal what this market is made of. Earlier rate spikes were widely viewed as temporary, so owners waited. He doubts that mindset holds now, since few people expect rates to drop soon.
His scenario: sellers who delisted this year after failing to get their price may look at rate headlines and stay put. Others are locked into low rates and will not trade into an 8% loan. With few new listings, inventory stays tight, and prices could keep inching up even though buyers are stretched. That is the "golden handcuffs" effect. For related reading, see Sellers Waiting for Lower Mortgage Rates: When Holding Out Stops Paying.
Limits of this view
This analysis has caveats worth keeping in mind.
- One month of data. A 2% pending-sales dip and a 3.5% sales decline are small, and a single September does not make a trend. Pending sales also lead closings, so the full effect of 7.5% rates may not show up until later.
- Local, personal vantage point. Grieco works mainly in Lee and Charlotte counties and says he does not sell in Naples. His observations at the marina are impressions, not data.
- Forecast risk. Rate forecasts miss often. Rates could fall as easily as rise, and Fannie Mae's outlook is a projection, not a promise.
- Thin supply cuts both ways. Falling inventory can partly reflect failed listings being withdrawn, which can return in a rush if sellers change their minds in January.
- Averages and medians. He prefers the median, which is reasonable. But the median also hides mix shifts, such as more or fewer sales at different price tiers.
His side notes also raise questions about the claims' sourcing. He cites a statistic that millionaire renters are up 229% nationally since 2020, and that in Naples the number of renting households earning over $1 million rose from 7 to 76, an 11x increase. He does not name the study, and the Naples sample is very small, so treat it as an illustration of affordability strain rather than a robust trend.
What this means for you
If you are buying
- Get a written rate-lock policy before you sign, including the cost and limits of extensions if closing slips.
- On new construction, ask for a tax estimate based on the expected purchase price, not the listed land value.
- Compare builder incentives carefully. A low advertised rate can come with FHA terms, price premiums or a short window.
- Expect competition in tight pockets such as Sarasota, and more room to negotiate in Lee County, where supply is higher.
If you are selling
- Review offers for financing risk, not just price. A cash buyer or one with a strong pre-approval may close more reliably.
- Price to local data, not county headlines. A county can read as a seller's market while your price band is crowded.
- Remember new construction can undercut resale financing. Consider whether buyer credits toward a rate buydown could help.
If you own and are thinking of moving
- Weigh the cost of giving up a low rate against what you would pay on a new loan. Run the numbers with a lender rather than guessing.
- If you are in an older retirement-heavy area, track demand over the long run. Grieco notes Charlotte County's median age is 59, versus 39 nationally. For more on that theme, see Silver Tsunami and Higher Rates: What Southwest Florida Housing Faces.
This article is general information, not personal financial advice. Speak with a licensed lender and agent about your situation.
What to watch next
- Weekly rate readings. Freddie Mac publishes its Primary Mortgage Market Survey each week.
- October to December pending sales. Florida Realtors' monthly reports will show whether the small September dip deepens.
- New listings in January. A surge of returning sellers would lift months of supply, especially in Sarasota and Charlotte.
- Tax-display rules. Watch for how MLS systems change the way new-construction taxes are shown.
- Flood-resilient building. Grieco points to a new waterfront listing in Naples Bay with a perimeter wall and flood-panel system, which hints at how buyers in flood-prone areas are being marketed to after recent storms.
Florida Realtors publishes the monthly figures cited here at its market data page.