Why are some Florida owners reselling recently built homes for less than they paid? A brokerage analysis, reviewed by the YouTube channel FloridaPulse, points to a mix of a frozen resale market, builder incentives that hide true prices, extra neighborhood costs and a price cycle that peaked in 2022. Among Florida buyers from 2022 and 2023 who purchased a home built since 2020 and have already resold, 65.7% got back less than they paid once buying and selling costs were counted. For homes built before 2000, that share was 42.6%.
Those numbers do not describe every Florida homeowner, and they are not a forecast. They cover only people who have already sold. Still, they offer a useful stress test for anyone buying new construction or trying to sell a house that is a few years old.
The data behind the headline
FloridaPulse host Roy Baker built his video on published tables from Momentum Realty, a Jacksonville brokerage that matched about 2.3 million Florida homes to their own earlier sale. Baker says he ranked counties from those tables rather than rebuilding the data, and he limited his list to counties with at least 1,000 matched resales. Two thinner counties, Sumter and Indian River, were left out because their samples were only a few hundred.
The key assumption is cost. Momentum counts roughly 8% for buying and selling combined, covering commission, Florida's documentary stamp tax, and title and closing charges at both ends. That is why "behind after costs" is a bigger group than "sold below the contract price."
A simple example shows the gap. A buyer who paid $400,000 would need to sell for about $435,000 to recover that money after an 8% cost load. A house that merely holds its value does not get there.
How the timing changed
Statewide, Momentum found that the share of buyers who came out behind rose sharply by purchase year:
| Purchase year | Share who resold behind after costs |
|---|---|
| 2020 | 4.4% |
| 2021 | 12.8% |
| 2022 | 48.9% |
| 2023 | 55.5% |
Buyers who bought near the 2022 peak, often with higher prices and builder incentives baked in, are the ones most exposed.
Which counties show the biggest losses
Baker counted down ten counties among 2022 and 2023 buyers who have resold. The table below uses his figures from Momentum's tables.
| County | Matched resales | Behind after costs | Sold below purchase price |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Johns | 1,954 | 70.6% | 39.2% |
| Flagler | 1,023 | 70.3% | 39.0% |
| Charlotte | 1,672 | 66.4% | 50.2% |
| Osceola | 2,853 | 66.1% | 39.9% |
| Sarasota | 3,556 | 64.9% | 46.0% |
| Manatee | 3,120 | 64.0% | 42.7% |
| Walton | 1,154 | 61.2% | 34.5% |
| St. Lucie | not clear in the video | 59.4% | 31.3% |
| Polk | 4,127 | 58.8% | 31.5% |
| Lake | 2,340 | 58.4% | 25.3% |
Two points deserve emphasis. First, Flagler and St. Johns are only 0.3 of a point apart, and Momentum says the order can flip depending on how listings that appear in multiple data feeds are matched. Baker treats them as tied. Second, Charlotte County has the highest share of outright losers at 50.2%, meaning half of those sellers took less than their contract price before any costs.
Is it really a new-construction story?
Not everywhere. Momentum recalculates each county as if it had the statewide mix of home ages, which shows how much of the loss rate comes from having a lot of new housing.
- St. Johns: 38.3% of the resale cohort was built since 2020, against 13% statewide. With the state's age mix, the rate would fall from 70.6% to 60.8%, so about 9.8 points come from age mix.
- Osceola: The age mix accounts for about 9.3 points, with the rate falling to 56.8%.
- Walton: About 5.4 points, with a 33.8% share of homes built since 2020.
- Manatee: About 4.4 points.
- Sarasota and Charlotte: Little or none. Sarasota stays near 65%, and Charlotte near 67%, because buyers lost money at nearly every age.
Momentum reads Sarasota, Charlotte and Flagler as markets that ran up and then corrected, not markets mainly competing with builders. That is a useful correction to the idea that every loss traces back to new homes. For related local context, see our look at Southwest Florida price cuts and Florida counties with falling home prices.
The age twist: 10-year-old homes fare worst
The most surprising result is that the newest homes were not the worst performers. Statewide, for 2022 and 2023 buyers who resold:
- Homes built in the 2010s: 73.5% lost money
- Homes built since 2020: 65.7%
- Homes built in the 2000s: 60.3%
- Homes built before 2000: 42.6%
In the dozen hardest-hit counties, between roughly 80% and 90% of 2010s-home buyers lost money, versus about four to six in ten for older homes in the same county. Polk showed the widest spread, 85.5% against 41%.
Momentum's explanation, relayed by Baker, is that these houses sit in the same subdivisions as a builder's current inventory and must be priced against it without the premium a brand-new house carries. Baker is careful to call this an association. Momentum cannot see who sold the earlier property, and insurance, bonds and bad timing can all affect resale value. Only completed sales are counted, and fast sellers tend to lose more often.
Why builders have the edge
A frozen resale market
In the seven counties around Jacksonville, Momentum reports resale transactions fell from about 33,500 in 2021 to about 20,200 in 2024, roughly a 40% drop. Many owners hold low-rate mortgages and have little reason to trade them for loans near today's levels, which Baker puts around 6.5%. You can check current averages at Freddie Mac's weekly survey. Builders face no such lock-in. New-home sales in the same region rose about 44%, and new construction grew from 13% of sales to 27%.
Nationally, Baker cites Florida Realtors reporting that the price gap between new and existing homes has narrowed, helped by builder price cuts, incentives and smaller homes. He also cites National Association of Home Builders chief economist Robert Dietz saying single-family construction fell about 7% in 2025. Our piece on builder incentives and price cuts covers the national picture.
Incentives that hide the real price
Baker says rate buy-downs and paid closing costs can reach about 10% of a deal while leaving the contract price untouched. A lower recorded price would pull down comparable sales across a subdivision, so builders often prefer concessions. Momentum argues that once incentives are counted, the new-home premium per square foot in Northeast Florida went from 39% in 2011 to 2.4% in 2024 and 0.3% in 2025, and has since turned negative, with new homes selling for slightly less than used ones this year.
For a private seller, matching that is hard. If you paid $400,000 and need about $435,000 to break even while a builder nearby sells a similar house at $410,000 with closing costs covered, you face a real trade-off between waiting and cutting. There is no free answer.
Bond assessments and other carrying costs
Many new Florida communities sit within a community development district, or CDD. Momentum puts typical annual assessments in Northeast Florida master-planned communities at $1,200 to $2,400, on top of property tax and association dues. At $1,800 a year for 30 years, that totals $54,000. A buyer comparing monthly costs will weigh that against a home with no bond.
Foreclosure signals in the background
Baker cites ATTOM's mid-year report: Florida had the highest foreclosure rate of any state in the first half of 2026, with 27,494 properties carrying a filing, up about 33% in a year. He also reports 20,358 foreclosure starts, second only to Texas. The Punta Gorda metro, which is Charlotte County, had the highest rate among larger metros at about 0.5% of housing units, and Cape Coral was at 0.35%. Lakeland, which is Polk County, ranked second at 0.48%.
A foreclosure filing is not the same as a completed foreclosure, and these figures are separate from the resale analysis. They do add to the picture of strain in parts of the state. For wider context, see our analysis of missed rent and mortgage payments.
Florida's new-home legal protections
Baker summarizes two rules that matter to new-home buyers:
- Warranty: For newly constructed homes, starting July 1, 2025, builders must provide a one-year warranty covering construction defects that amount to a material building-code violation. It transfers to the next owner if you sell within that year but does not cover normal settling.
- Deadline to sue: A bill signed in April 2023 shortened the statute of repose for construction defects from 10 years to seven, effective in full July 1, 2024. The four-year statute of limitations did not change.
So a 10-year builder warranty is not a Florida legal requirement. Details are complex, so consult a Florida real-estate attorney about a specific situation.
What this means for you
If you are buying new construction:
- Hire your own inspector for the pre-drywall and final walkthroughs.
- Read the contract carefully; the builder's attorneys wrote it.
- Ask for addresses of homes delivered more than a year ago and speak with those owners.
- Get the CDD assessment and years remaining in writing before you sign.
- Compare the monthly cost of the new house with a nearby resale, and ask what the builder is paying to make the deal work. Our guide on buying a home today covers closing costs and negotiation.
If you are selling a house built in the last 15 years:
- Look at active builder inventory in your area, not just recorded sales.
- Price against the all-in cost a buyer sees, including any builder concessions.
- Remember the roughly 8% transaction cost when judging a break-even price. Our article on pricing mistakes when selling shows how overpricing can cost more later.
If you are an owner who is not selling:
- Paper losses matter only if you must sell. Many owners in this cohort are not forced sellers.
- Watch tax, insurance and assessment bills, which affect your carrying costs and a future buyer's math.
Limits of the analysis
Baker and Momentum are both open about the caveats. The sample includes only homes that have already resold, and sellers who exit quickly, sometimes because of job moves or financial stress, lose more often. Momentum cannot see whether the earlier sale was from a builder or a private owner. Insurance costs, bonds and timing all influence value.
Southwest Florida coverage is thin because of how the data feeds are collected. Lee and Collier counties are missing from the table, which means they are unmeasured, not necessarily healthy. Finally, Baker stresses that the findings describe this price run-up and correction, not a permanent rule about newer homes. Different conditions, such as falling rates or a slower supply of new homes, could change the pattern. Video transcripts and brokerage tables can also contain errors, so readers should check county-level figures before relying on them.
What to watch next
Watch builder inventory in your county, the pace of incentives, and mortgage rates. If rates drift lower, resale activity could thaw, which would ease pressure on sellers in builder-heavy subdivisions. Baker says he plans to follow the next Zillow update to see which Florida counties moved. For a broader view, our housing market reality check tracks national prices, inventory and rates.