Missed Rent and Mortgage Payments Hit a Record: What the Data Shows

How many households are missing rent and mortgage payments?

A growing share of American households are struggling to pay for housing on time. According to a survey from the Urban Institute, a Washington, D.C. research group, 20% of renters aged 18 to 64 either paid late or did not pay their full rent in at least one month of 2025. That is the highest share the survey has recorded, up from 16.5% in 2024.

Homeowners are affected too, though less. About 7.2% reported missing a mortgage payment in 2025, compared with 6.8% the year before. Those figures come via the YouTube creator Michael Bordenaro Clips, who walked through the data in an October 2026 video.

Will that push more homes onto the market? Probably not directly, and not quickly. Missed payments signal strain, but they are a long way from foreclosure. The more immediate effect is on household mobility: people who are stretched tend to stay put, which keeps the market slow.

The key figures at a glance

The numbers below are as cited in the video from the Urban Institute survey. The data covers 2025, so it is already trailing current conditions.

Two details stand out. First, low-income renters still have by far the highest rate, but their increase was small. Second, the middle-income jump of more than seven percentage points is the story. Bordenaro reads that as evidence that financial pressure is spreading beyond the households most often associated with housing stress.

Why the middle of the income ladder moved the most

Bordenaro's explanation is cost of living. He argues that years of elevated inflation have pushed households down a rung, so people who once felt comfortably middle class now have less margin. He also points to high fuel prices as an added drag on monthly budgets.

That reading is plausible but it is his interpretation, not a finding of the survey as described. Middle-income renters often earn too much for most assistance programs yet have little savings buffer, which can make a single bad month more disruptive. If you want broader context on squeezed budgets, see our look at cost of living and housing affordability.

It is also worth being clear about what the measure captures. "Late" and "missed" are lumped together in the figure as presented. A renter who paid five days late once would count alongside one who fell months behind. The headline is real, but it covers a range of severity.

The affordability gap behind the payment stress

The video connects missed payments to a wider affordability squeeze. It cites the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's Home Ownership Affordability Monitor, which estimates the income needed to buy a median-priced home while keeping costs at or below 30% of income. Those costs include principal and interest, property taxes, insurance, mortgage insurance and a 10% down payment, according to Bordenaro's description.

The video describes a chart in which the income needed to buy the median home has pulled well away from actual median household income. Bordenaro says the gap is wider than it was around the 2006 peak and the 2008 crash. He also cites a back-of-the-envelope calculation, from a story he does not name, that incomes would have to rise 46% to restore affordability if prices and rates stayed fixed. Later in the video he refers to the same idea as 45%, so treat the figure as roughly 45%, and as a hypothetical rather than a forecast.

For context, the 30% rule is a long-standing guideline, not a law. Lenders look at debt-to-income ratios, and many households do spend more than 30%. Still, it is a useful yardstick, and Atlanta Fed data is public if you want to check your own area.

How long could affordability take to return?

The video leans on Redfin's analysis of how long housing costs might take to line up with incomes again. Bordenaro summarizes three scenarios:

• About 5 years: mortgage rates fall to 6% and home price growth holds near 2.1% a year.
• About 6 years: rates stay near 7.5% and home prices stay flat.
• 10 years or more: rates remain between 7% and 8% and prices keep rising about 2.1% a year.

He adds that Redfin puts the last time the payment-to-income ratio hit 30% at August 2018. He also quotes a Redfin senior economist saying many house hunters feel stuck between buying at today's rates or waiting and risking higher prices.

Bordenaro is more pessimistic than Redfin. He says he expects mortgage rates near 8% by the end of the year, and he argues that incomes growing about 3% a year will not close the gap. That is a personal forecast. For a grounded view of rates, check the weekly Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey rather than relying on any single prediction. Our piece on why it is so hard to buy a house covers how rates, prices and payments interact.

Will missed payments push more homes onto the market?

This is where the video makes its most important argument. Bordenaro describes a feedback loop. If renters cannot afford rents, landlords may have to cut prices. If lower rents squeeze landlord profits, some may sell, adding listings to a market where many homes are already sitting. He notes that rental inventory has been rising and that Redfin has reported record price cuts among active listings.

There is logic to that chain, but a few steps are missing from the data presented:

1. Missed is not lost. Most households that miss a payment catch up. Foreclosure requires months of delinquency and a lender decision.
2. Many owners have equity. After years of price gains, owners who are in trouble can often sell rather than lose the home. That adds supply, but through ordinary sales, not distress.
3. Landlord stress varies. Investors with low-rate loans or no debt can hold on much longer than those who bought recently at high prices.

Where might supply rise? Possibly among recent buyers with thin equity, small landlords and in markets with softer prices. To track the real signals, look at the New York Fed's Household Debt and Credit report, the Mortgage Bankers Association's delinquency survey and foreclosure filings from firms such as ATTOM. Our coverage of rising evictions and landlord strain looks at the investor side in more detail.

Limits and counterpoints to the creator's view

Bordenaro's take is bearish, and some of it deserves caution.

• The survey is self-reported and a year old. People may interpret "late" differently, and conditions in 2026 may be better or worse.
• Correlation is not causation. The video attributes the rise mainly to inflation. Job losses, medical bills, student loan payments and rent increases from earlier years could also play a role.
• Affordability is not only getting worse. He acknowledges that rents have fallen in many places and that price cuts are widespread. Those are positives for buyers and renters with flexibility.
• Price growth figures are national medians. He argues the 2.1% annual gain is skewed by high-end sales. Composition effects can distort medians, but regional data varies widely, so check your own market.
• Inflation math cuts both ways. He says 3.4% inflation makes a 2.1% price gain a real decline of about 1.3 points. Verify current inflation on the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI page. Real prices falling is also what helps affordability recover.
• Rate forecasts are uncertain. A call for 8% mortgage rates is an opinion, and professional forecasters have missed the mark often in recent years.

What this means for you

This is general information, not personal financial advice. Consider talking to a housing counselor or licensed professional about your situation.

If you are a buyer

• A slow market with price cuts can give you room to negotiate, but only if your own payment is comfortable. Many advisers suggest keeping total housing costs near or below 30% of gross income, though this varies.
• Bordenaro suggests using the time to build income, improve credit and reduce debt. That is sound general advice because it improves loan terms whenever you buy.
• Rates and prices both matter. Waiting for lower rates carries risk if prices rise, as the Redfin economist noted.

If you are a seller

• Pricing to the current market matters more than the price you hoped for. Homes priced too high are the ones building up days on market. Our article on mistakes when selling your home shows how costly that can be.
• Moving costs and higher replacement payments deter many would-be sellers, so expect fewer motivated buyers at the top of your range.

If you are a current owner or renter

• If you are falling behind, contact your lender or landlord early. Servicers can offer forbearance, repayment plans or modifications, and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau lists housing counselors on its website.
• Renters with some flexibility may find better terms, since rental inventory is rising and rents have eased in many areas, according to the video.

What to watch next

Several data points will show whether this is a blip or a trend:

• Delinquency and foreclosure data: quarterly New York Fed figures, MBA surveys and ATTOM foreclosure counts.
• Mortgage rates: the weekly Freddie Mac survey and the 10-year Treasury yield.
• Inventory and price cuts: monthly Redfin, Realtor.com and Zillow reports.
• Wages versus costs: income growth compared with inflation and housing costs.

The honest answer to the original question is that millions of households are paying late or short at a record rate, and that signals real strain. Whether it converts into significantly more homes for sale depends on how many of those households move from late to seriously delinquent, and so far the data in this video does not show that.