Housing Market Forecast 2027: NAR Economist Cuts Outlook as Rates Climb

What is the housing economist actually forecasting?

The short answer: a slower recovery than the industry hoped for. In a video published November 1, 2026, Florida real estate agent and YouTuber Ben Grieco walked through a revised outlook from Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Grieco says Yun's once-hopeful view of pending home sales in 2027 now looks much weaker because mortgage rates jumped suddenly.

The numbers Grieco cited are specific. A year ago, Yun projected that existing-home sales would rise 14% in 2026 and that the median price would climb 4%. The revised sales growth is only about 2%, a gap of roughly 12 percentage points. Yun also expects new-home sales to fall about 5% year over year.

This article unpacks those figures, adds context the video skipped, and covers a second theme from the same video: why you should assume you are being recorded when you tour a home.

The revised numbers at a glance

Here is how Grieco described the shift, laid out side by side.

A caution on reading this table. The video is a creator's summary, not an NAR release, and the captions are auto-generated. Grieco's wording on which figure fell "12%" is ambiguous. The most natural reading is that the sales forecast dropped 12 points, from 14% to 2%. Check NAR's own research page for the exact current projections before quoting them.

Why rates are the center of the revision

Yun's change of heart, as relayed by Grieco, traces back to a sudden rise in borrowing costs. Mortgage rates affect demand in a direct way: higher rates raise the monthly payment on the same loan, which shrinks how much home a buyer can afford and pushes some households out of the market altogether.

NAR's updated forecast chart, which Grieco showed on screen, reportedly flattens a steep upward line into a much gentler slope. Grieco notes that NAR remains conditionally optimistic. The group suggests that if rates fall closer to 6% in early 2027, buying activity could pick up well.

Grieco does not buy that scenario. He calls a return to 6% next year "not going to happen" and speculates that today's rates may look low in hindsight, even raising the possibility of a return to the double-digit rates of the 1970s and 1980s. That is his opinion, and a dramatic one. It is worth treating as one commentator's view rather than a projection. For the current benchmark, check the weekly Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey or the long-run series on FRED. For how inflation feeds into rate expectations, see our explainer on inflation and mortgage rates.

Price versus rate: the creator's central argument

Grieco's most pointed claim is that blaming rates misses the real obstacle. In his view, buyers transact when the price feels right, and a rate can be reduced later but the purchase price cannot. Sellers who receive offers they consider low, he says, are often looking at what the market will bear, especially if several offers cluster around the same figure.

There is something to this. A rate can be changed by refinancing if borrowing costs fall, while a price paid is locked in. It also fits what we have seen in other parts of the market, where listings that start too high sit and then take repeated cuts. Our piece on why home prices haven't dropped explains why some sellers hold out and what happens to those who do.

Grieco also expects builders to stay competitive. He notes that new-construction sellers can offer rate buydowns, which could keep them active even as resale activity cools. Yun's forecast for a 5% drop in new-home sales, however, suggests those incentives are not a cure-all. If you are weighing a buydown against a price cut, our guide to the seller-paid mortgage rate buydown walks through the math.

A street-level look: Burnt Store Isles, Florida

Grieco recorded the video while walking a waterfront street in Burnt Store Isles in Charlotte County, Florida. Three homes were for sale within walking distance, and the listing histories illustrate his point about pricing.

• The $1.15 million home (3 beds, 2 baths, about 2,457 sq ft, built in 2016): It last sold in 2023 for $1.2 million, so the asking price is already below that purchase price. Grieco says the owners tried $1.25 million first and came back to market at the lower figure after a short gap.
• The $1.299 million home (3 beds, 4 baths, about 2,300 sq ft, built in 2024): It has never been lived in and has had two price cuts, about $40,000 and then $50,000. The land sold in 2022 for $348,000, and Grieco notes the home took about two years to reach the market after completion.
• The $688,000 home (3 beds, 3 baths, about 2,300 sq ft, built in 1993): It had been on Zillow for 171 days. Grieco says it was bought last year as a vacation rental, rented for around $4,300, went pending in May and returned to market about 10 days later. The listing discloses that the dock and boat lift need repair and are sold as is. Grieco puts the fix at roughly $20,000 to $30,000, which is his estimate.

Grieco's takeaway is that buyers who purchased near the 2022 to 2023 peak in much of Florida are finding resale difficult. We have covered the same pattern in Florida new construction resale losses. Remember that three listings are an anecdote, not a market report.

Inventory: what the listing flow suggests

Grieco says his seven-day trailing MLS search from Venice to Punta Gorda lately shows about 300 new listings against 180 to 200 sales. If that gap persists, and if the usual January surge of new listings arrives, he expects months' supply to rise. Months' supply is the number of months it would take to sell current inventory at the recent sales pace; roughly five to six months is often described as balanced, though definitions vary.

He characterizes Charlotte County overall as balanced, with Venice, Nokomis, Osprey and Sarasota still strongly favoring sellers, while North Port, Port Charlotte, Punta Gorda and Cape Coral are less so. Local conditions can differ block to block, so verify with current data from your agent, Redfin's data center or local MLS reports.

Assume you are being recorded when you tour a home

The second half of the video turns to privacy. Grieco shares a story from a commenter whose seller had cameras running during a showing and heard the listing agent explain why the owners were selling. He argues that this is now routine: he says roughly 95% of homes have cameras, and he estimates that nine times out of ten, a touring buyer is being recorded. Those percentages are his own estimates, not survey figures.

His advice is simple. Stay quiet about your feelings while inside. Buyers who gush that a house is perfect and then want to submit a low offer have, in his words, given away their position. He also says some sellers monitor showings live on their phones.

Practical steps for buyers

• Discuss price, budget, timelines and flaws in the car or after you leave, not in the house.
• Look for doorbell cameras, indoor cameras and smart speakers, and ask your agent whether the listing discloses any.
• Keep your reactions neutral. Take notes or photos where allowed and talk later.

Practical steps for sellers

• Disclose any cameras or audio devices clearly in the listing or on signage. Many listing forms already ask.
• Consider turning off audio recording during showings. Recording conversations can raise legal questions that vary by state.
• Do not offer a motivation story to buyers. Grieco advises against explaining why you are selling and says a bland, neutral reason is fine if someone insists on one.

On the law: states differ on consent for audio recording. Some require only one party's consent, while others, including Florida, are generally described as requiring all parties to consent for private conversations. A video-only camera is treated differently from audio. This is general information, not legal advice; see the Reporters Committee recording guide or consult an attorney in your state.

Where the creator's view has limits

Grieco's take is sharp, but there are reasons to hold it loosely.

• Forecasts get revised. Economists, including NAR's, revise projections as data arrive. A downgrade now does not lock in 2027, and an upgrade could follow if rates ease.
• Rates are not the only variable. Price, wages, inventory, insurance costs and job markets all matter. Calling it "price, not rates" may overstate one factor. A seller cannot ignore rates when buyers' monthly payments depend on them.
• A 12% to 18% rate scenario is speculative. Nothing in the video presents data pointing to such levels, and the rate environment of the 1980s followed very different inflation conditions.
• NAR has an industry perspective. As a trade group of real estate professionals, its forecasts tend to be read as optimistic by critics, and Grieco himself notes it is prepping people for higher rates. Readers can weigh that alongside independent forecasts.
• Florida is not the nation. A waterfront street in Southwest Florida, with its insurance and hurricane costs, is not a proxy for Ohio or Arizona.

What this means for you

If you are buying

Build your budget around today's rate, not the rate you hope to see. Run the monthly payment at a few rate levels to see how sensitive you are. Ask about seller concessions and builder incentives, but compare them against a straightforward lower price. Get your own inspection even if the seller provides one; Grieco makes this point about the $688,000 listing, and it applies everywhere. Our guide on how to buy a home today covers closing costs and negotiation. And keep your tour commentary to yourself.

If you are selling

Price to the market's recent comparable sales rather than to what you paid or hoped to net. Homes that start high often end up with multiple cuts, as the Burnt Store Isles listings show. If offers cluster in a narrow band, that is useful information. Disclose any cameras, and think about what your devices record.

If you own and are not moving

A slower sales forecast does not by itself threaten your home's value; it means fewer transactions. Owners with a low fixed rate typically have little reason to react to a forecast. Watch local inventory and your own insurance and tax costs, which can matter more than national headlines.

What to watch next

• Weekly mortgage rates from Freddie Mac, and whether they move toward or away from the 6% level NAR mentioned.
• NAR's monthly existing-home sales and pending-home-sales reports, which will show whether the lowered forecast is playing out.
• New listings versus sales in your local market, especially the January listing surge Grieco expects in Florida.
• New-home incentives and price cuts, which show how builders are responding. See our look at new home sales, builder incentives and price cuts.

None of this is personalized financial advice. Talk with a licensed mortgage professional, agent or attorney about your own situation.