Which California cities could outpace the state through 2028?
California as a whole has gone nowhere lately: home values rose less than half a percent over the past year, according to the figures cited by the YouTube channel InsideCalifornia. Yet Zillow's city-level forecasts suggest a short list of places could grow at two to three times the rate of the typical California city, which the same video says is expected to rise by less than 1% over the next year.
The creator ranked the 15 strongest forecasts and tried to match each with a reason. The leaders are scattered: Long Beach, Inglewood, Carson and Culver City sit in the Olympic and entertainment orbit of Los Angeles; San Francisco is riding an AI-fueled rebound; and the top three spots go to Imperial Valley towns where the typical home still costs less than $450,000.
That is a useful screen, with one big caveat: a forecast that covers roughly twelve months says little about where prices will stand in 2028. Treat it as a map of momentum, not a promise.
How the ranking works and what it measures
InsideCalifornia took Zillow's home value forecast for every California city, sorted by the projected one-year gain, and then looked for local catalysts. Zillow's figures describe the "typical" home value, a smoothed estimate across a market, which is different from the median price of homes that actually sold in a given month. The two can diverge sharply in fast-moving markets.
That distinction matters in San Francisco. The creator cites a record median sale price of about $2.15 million this spring, while Zillow's typical-value measure was up more than 13% in a year. Both point the same direction, but they are not the same number.
Two other points frame everything below:
- Zillow's forecast horizon is about one year, as the creator acknowledges. Anything about 2028 is an extrapolation of the story, not of the data.
- Small cities produce noisy forecasts. A move of a few tenths of a percentage point can reshuffle the order, so the ranking is better read as tiers than as a precise list.
For broader context on how affordability limits what any local market can do, see our look at why home prices outrun incomes.
The leaders at a glance
The figures below come from the video, which cites Zillow data. Where the auto-generated transcript garbled a number, it is left out.
| City | Typical home (per video) | Forecast / recent trend | Main driver cited |
|---|---|---|---|
| El Centro (#1) | About $394,000 | Up more than 6% in the past year; forecast near the top tier | Border trade, possible lithium jobs |
| Calexico (#2) | About $394,000 | Up about a third in 5 years; tied for top forecast | Truck-lane expansion, trade with Mexico |
| Imperial (#3) | About $440,000 | Up 44% in 5 years; about 2.7% forecast | Buyers priced out of San Diego |
| Culver City (#4) | About $1.27 million | About 2.3% | Apple campus, Amazon, Sony |
| Inglewood (#5) | About $750,000 | About 2.25% | SoFi Stadium, Intuit Dome, Olympics |
| Long Beach | About $850,000 | About 2% | 11 Olympic sports |
| Carson | About $785,000 | A little over 2% | Five Olympic sports, landfill redevelopment |
| Gardena | About $780,000 | A little over 2% | 700+ new homes rising or approved |
| Compton | About $638,000 | A little over 2% | Surrounded by pricier, improving cities |
| Alhambra | About $916,000 | About 2% | Zoning changes, proximity to downtown LA |
| Claremont | Just over $1 million | About 2% | Planned rail extension, college town |
| Fountain Valley | About $1.38 million | Up almost 50% in 5 years | Schools, family demand |
| Westminster | Not clear in transcript | Up almost 5% last year; about 2% forecast | Large mall redevelopment |
| San Francisco | Median sale about $2.15 million | Up 13%+ in a year; above 2% forecast | AI-driven hiring and wealth |
| Torrance | Not clear in transcript | A little over 2% | Future light-rail line |
Three kinds of catalysts
Olympics and event infrastructure
Long Beach, Carson and Inglewood all host events at the 2028 Los Angeles Games. The creator says Long Beach will stage 11 sports, and that the city counts 161 ticketed events across 17 days. Carson's Dignity Health Sports Park will host five sports, and Inglewood's SoFi Stadium is slated for the opening and closing ceremonies, with the Intuit Dome hosting basketball.
InsideCalifornia is candid that research on past host cities is mixed: some enjoyed lasting value gains, others a hangover once the crowds left. What tends to last is infrastructure and visibility. In Inglewood, a planned $2.4 billion people mover collapsed and is being replaced by a cheaper plan of bus lanes, a mobility hub and walking upgrades. The creator also notes that rents rose quickly after SoFi was announced, a reminder that a price-boosting event is not good news for everyone.
Jobs and wealth concentration
Culver City's pitch is employment. Apple is moving about 2,400 workers into a new campus there, joining Amazon, Sony and TikTok, in a city of roughly 40,000 with little land left to build on. When well-paid jobs arrive in a small, built-out city, housing competition is nearly automatic.
San Francisco is the louder version. The creator reports homes selling for an average of 23% over asking and condo values up close to 30% in a year, tied to AI companies leasing office space and employees cashing in stock. He also warns that a boom resting on a single industry has a history, citing the dot-com era. Spillover into nearby Daly City, South San Francisco and the East Bay is plausible, but it is his inference rather than a measured result.
Transit and redevelopment
Several picks rely on projects that finish after 2028. Torrance is awaiting a light-rail line along Hawthorne Boulevard that the video says may open around 2036. Claremont's Metro A Line extension is in the contracting stage, with about four years of construction once it starts. Westminster's roughly $2.5 billion mall redevelopment, which includes about 2,250 homes, is planned to finish in around five years. The argument is that buyers price in future stations and neighborhoods early. That can happen, but timelines on projects this size routinely slip, as the creator concedes.
The Imperial Valley surprise
The most unexpected result is that the top three forecasts belong to Imperial, Calexico and El Centro. The video's case rests on affordability and trade: San Diego buyers priced out of the coast are looking two hours east, border truck lanes at Calexico were expanded with the full project due by the end of 2028, and close to half a million commercial trucks cross there each year.
Lithium is the wild card. The creator notes that the Salton Sea area holds a large deposit, but as of September no lithium is being commercially produced, and lawsuits and low lithium prices have slowed progress. A Berkshire Hathaway-linked demonstration plant is expected to start by the end of the year. He also points out that unemployment in the valley has been high for a long time, summers are punishing, and farm-working renters will feel price increases first.
The honest reading: low prices and a strong one-year forecast make these towns interesting, but the lithium story is still a promise.
Limits and counterpoints
A few things temper the optimistic framing.
- Forecast length. A one-year projection compounding to 2028 is an assumption. Mortgage rates, which you can track in Freddie Mac's weekly survey, have a large influence on whether buyers can pay today's prices.
- Statewide weakness. A flat state market suggests many buyers are stretched. Our reporting on falling homebuyer demand and seller price cuts shows why local bright spots can fade quickly.
- Narrative bias. The video is built around finding a reason for each forecast. A tidy story, such as a stadium or a train, can look more causal than it is. Many of these cities are simply near expensive neighbors, which is a weaker but still real driver.
- Small samples. Imperial and Calexico have few sales, so Zillow's estimates can swing on a handful of transactions.
- Data quality. The creator lists El Centro and Calexico at the same typical price, which may be a transcription or reading error worth verifying against Zillow directly.
What this means for you
Buyers. A top-ranked forecast does not make a house a bargain. Compare the monthly payment at current rates with your budget and test whether you would be comfortable if prices were flat for several years. Neighborhoods near planned stations or venues may carry a premium already. See our piece on moving to California in 2027 for the ongoing costs that follow the purchase.
Sellers. In the strongest markets, such as San Francisco, bidding competition has been reported, but conditions differ by neighborhood and price tier. A local agent's recent comparable sales are more reliable than a citywide forecast. If you own near an Olympic venue, short-term rental rules and taxes deserve a careful read before you plan around 2028 income.
Owners. Proposition 13 generally ties your assessed value to your purchase price and limits yearly increases, which the creator notes is why rising values help owners more than buyers. That protects your tax bill, but a higher market value does not by itself raise your income.
Renters. In event-heavy cities, the video suggests rents could rise, not fall. Review lease renewal dates and local tenant protections.
None of this is personal financial advice. Consider speaking to a licensed agent or advisor before a major decision.
What to watch next
- Zillow's monthly forecast updates, to see whether these cities hold their rank.
- Mortgage-rate direction, tracked through Freddie Mac and the FRED database.
- Inventory and days on market in your target city. Our report on rising housing inventory explains why more listings can cap price growth.
- Project milestones: Westminster's demolition and construction schedule, the Claremont contract, Inglewood's mobility hub, and any lithium production in the Imperial Valley.
- Employment trends in San Francisco's AI sector and Culver City's entertainment and tech base.
The takeaway is measured. California is not booming, but pockets with clear demand drivers are expected to outrun the state. Whether they reach 2028 with meaningful gains depends on rates, jobs and construction schedules that no single forecast can settle.