Housing Inventory Hits a 10-Year High, but Buyers Aren't Biting

Why aren't buyers responding to the most housing supply in a decade?

Because inventory is only one half of the equation. According to figures discussed by housing commentator Michael Bordenaro Clips, the US market held about 4.9 months of supply in August, the highest reading in roughly 10 years and the most since 2016. Over the same month, existing-home sales slipped another 2%. More homes are sitting for sale, and fewer are changing hands.

The reason is a squeeze on the demand side. Mortgage rates have moved higher, living costs remain elevated, and many households simply cannot make a monthly payment work at current prices. Supply has grown not because sellers rushed to list, but because homes are taking longer to sell. That distinction matters for anyone deciding whether to buy, sell or wait.

This article lays out the numbers from the video, explains what "months of supply" actually measures, adds context from public data sources, and covers where the creator's reading may be too one-sided.

The key figures from the video

Here are the data points Bordenaro cites, all of which should be checked against the original sources before you rely on them:

The video does not say which organization produced the 4.9-month supply figure or the median price. Months-of-supply readings differ between the National Association of Realtors, Redfin, Realtor.com and others, because each uses its own methodology. Treat 4.9 as the creator's cited number rather than a single official statistic.

What "months of supply" really tells you

Months of supply answers a simple question: if no new homes were listed, how long would it take to sell everything currently on the market at the present sales pace? Divide active listings by monthly sales and you get the answer.

That is why the measure can rise in two ways. Listings can grow, or sales can shrink. In August both pressures were present, but the sales side is doing a lot of the work. When existing-home sales fall 2% in a month, months of supply climbs even if the listing count barely moves.

For context, real estate analysts commonly describe a market near five to six months of supply as roughly balanced between buyers and sellers. Below that range, sellers usually hold the advantage; well above it, buyers do. At 4.9 months, the national market sits just under that balanced zone by that rule of thumb. It is the highest in a decade, but it is not yet an outright buyer's market on a national basis. Local conditions vary widely.

This is also why the pre-pandemic comparison is useful. Bordenaro points to 2016, when supply and sales were more in step. The takeaway is that today's relative supply is back to a level last seen before the pandemic-era shortage, even though the total number of homes for sale is still a different story in many regions.

Why mortgage rates are not the whole story

Bordenaro's central argument is that high rates cannot be the sole reason buyers are staying away. He points to new homes: builders often offer rate buydowns, and he says a buyer might land a rate in the mid-4s on a new build. New homes can also cost less than comparable existing ones. Yet demand has not rushed back. In his view, that shows the real obstacles are weak wage growth against inflation and a broad cost-of-living squeeze.

Part of that argument holds up. Affordability is about the full monthly burden: the mortgage payment, property taxes, insurance, utilities and everyday expenses. A lower rate on a particular home does not fix a household budget that is stretched elsewhere. Builders using buydowns also tend to absorb the cost in the price, so the discount is not free.

On rates themselves, the video cites a Mortgage News Daily chart showing 7.12% in mid-September, above Zillow's forecast for year-end of about 6.76% (the creator later mentions 6.79%, so the exact forecast figure is unclear). He ties the move to the bond market and to the 10-year Treasury yield reaching levels not seen since 2008. For a deeper look at that link, see our explainer on the 10-year Treasury yield spike and mortgage rates.

One practical note: daily indexes such as Mortgage News Daily usually differ from the weekly Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which averages rates reported by lenders and often lands lower. When you compare numbers, check which one is being quoted.

Price cuts are where the leverage shows up

The most useful buyer-side figure in the video is the price-cut share. Zillow data cited by Bordenaro puts 26.3% of listings with a reduction in August, which he describes as more than a quarter of the market.

A price cut matters for two reasons:

• It can change the math. A $100,000 reduction on a home that was previously out of reach may bring the payment into range.
• It often signals a motivated seller. Sellers who intend to hold firm tend not to cut. Those who do cut are usually more open to concessions on price, closing costs or repairs.

Bordenaro argues that a price cut always means a willing negotiator. That is a stretch as a universal rule; some sellers reduce a price simply to get back into the search filters of a bigger audience, then dig in. Still, as a general pattern, a listing with multiple reductions and a long time on market tends to offer more room than a fresh listing.

If you want to see how this plays out locally, our coverage of falling homebuyer demand and seller price cuts and the Nashville price cut trend shows what the pattern looks like in practice.

Why the median price is still rising

A skeptical reader might ask how prices can rise 1.6% to a $429,100 median while supply surges and one in four listings are cut. Bordenaro's answer is a mix effect. He notes that at the high end, buyers with large stock gains and tech wealth, particularly in the Bay Area, are still purchasing. Standing in Tiburon, California, he points to two roughly $2 million homes that were both pending. In his telling, those sales, along with growth in the half-million to $1 million-plus range, are propping up the headline number.

That is a reasonable explanation of how a median can mislead. The median reflects whichever homes actually sold. If a larger share of sales shifts toward expensive homes while entry-level buyers sit out, the median can rise even when many individual homes lose value. It is one reason to look at repeat-sales indexes and local price-per-square-foot data, not just the national median.

Bordenaro also says some areas have already seen declines of 20% or more, which by his own definition (a 20% drop within five years) counts as a local crash. That is his definition, not an official one, and he distinguishes it from a nationwide 2008-style downturn, which he says has not occurred. For place-specific examples, see our reports on Florida cities where prices are falling fastest and the California cities with the steepest declines.

Which metros have the most supply?

This is the part the video does not answer. Bordenaro speaks about the national figure and a few local anecdotes, but he does not rank metro areas by inventory. We therefore cannot responsibly name the markets with the most supply from this source alone.

What the broader pattern suggests, as general guidance rather than a ranking: markets that saw rapid price gains and heavy new construction during the pandemic years, particularly in parts of the South and Mountain West, have tended to see inventory recover faster than tightly constrained coastal or Northeast markets. Your local picture could differ.

To find your market's number, check:

• Redfin's Data Center for months of supply and days on market by metro.
• Realtor.com research data for active listing counts and listing price changes.
• Zillow Research for the share of listings with price cuts.
• Your local MLS or agent for the neighborhood-level view, which matters more than any metro average.

Counterpoints and limits to the creator's view

Bordenaro's forecasts are bold, and readers should weigh them carefully.

• The rate forecast is opinion. He says he now expects rates could go above 8% by year-end and that rates might never fall below 6% again. Capital Economics, as cited in the video, expects 2026 to be the weakest year for home sales in more than a decade and 30-year rates to stay above 6% for at least two years. That is a meaningful difference from "above 8%." Forecasts of this kind have a poor record in both directions.
• Economists are not simply selling leads. He argues that firms like Zillow shade forecasts optimistically because they profit from transactions. Forecast misses are common, but a miss is not proof of bias; rate forecasting is hard for everyone.
• One month of data is not a trend. A 2% monthly sales drop is notable but can be revised, and monthly figures are noisy.
• National supply is not local supply. At 4.9 months, the nation is near balance. Many metros remain tight and still see competitive bidding.

What this means for you

This is general information, not personalized financial advice. Consider your own finances and talk to a licensed professional before acting.

If you are a buyer

• Look at months of supply, days on market and price-cut share in your specific ZIP code, not the national figure.
• Listings that have already been reduced or have sat for weeks are where negotiation tends to work best. Ask about seller credits, rate buydowns and repair concessions, not just price.
• Don't rely on a prediction of where rates are heading. Make sure the payment works today, with room for taxes and insurance.

If you are a seller

• Pricing is the biggest lever. With roughly one in four listings cut, an overpriced home competes against a growing set of reduced rivals.
• Expect longer timelines and more negotiation than a couple of years ago, especially below the luxury tier.
• Compare your home with recent sold prices, not asking prices.

If you are a current owner

• The national median may be flat to slightly up, but your neighborhood could differ. Unless you plan to sell, short-term price swings matter less than your payment and equity cushion.
• A fixed-rate mortgage at a lower rate is an asset in this environment. Our piece on why the housing market is frozen explains how that lock-in affects supply.

What to watch next

Three data releases will show whether the supply build continues:

1. Monthly existing-home sales from the National Association of Realtors, to see if the 2% decline repeats.
2. Weekly Freddie Mac mortgage rates, compared with the daily indexes.
3. CPI and producer price reports, since inflation readings have been driving Treasury yields and, in turn, mortgage rates.

If supply keeps rising while sales stay weak, buyer leverage should continue to grow in more markets. If rates ease even modestly, sidelined buyers could return, and the supply cushion could tighten quickly. For now, the clearest message from the August numbers is that inventory alone does not make a market affordable.