Texas Housing Market 2026: Which Metros Are Weakest?

Is Texas Heading for a Collapse, or a Correction?

Short answer: the figures in a recent video from the channel The Resident Survivor describe a correction, not a collapse. The creator walks through ten Texas metros and argues that price cuts, rising inventory and longer selling times are spreading from Austin to small markets like Killeen and El Paso. The declines he cites are mostly in the low single digits, with a few outliers. Falling prices, more listings and slower sales are real. A crash would require forced selling and large price drops, and the video itself notes that most analysts do not expect that.

This article sorts the video's numbers, flags where they conflict, and explains what they mean for people deciding whether to buy, sell or hold in the Texas housing market in 2026. Every figure below comes from the video unless we say otherwise. Treat them as the creator's reading of third-party data, not as audited statistics.

The Statewide Backdrop

The Resident Survivor builds his case on four statewide points:

• Months of supply above five. He puts statewide supply at roughly 5.2 months, a level he says Texas has not seen in more than a decade. Months of supply measures how long it would take to sell all active listings at the current sales pace. Many analysts treat about five to six months as a balanced market. Fewer than that favors sellers, and more favors buyers.
• Record new listings. He cites more than 565,000 new listings over the past year.
• Mortgage rates above 6.5%. He says rates remain well above the roughly 5% range forecasters had hoped for. (He also mentions "near 6%" in one passage, so the exact figure in his data is unclear. Check the current weekly average in Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey.)
• Slower migration. He says Texas has slipped to 17th place nationally in inbound migration rankings for 2026 after years near the top. He does not name the ranking's publisher, so verify it before citing it.

The first two points match a national pattern we covered in Housing Inventory Hits a 10-Year High, but Buyers Aren't Biting. Texas has simply been one of the places where new construction and in-migration pushed supply up fastest.

The Ten Metros at a Glance

The table summarizes what the creator reports. Figures are year-over-year unless noted, and "price" refers to whichever median he quoted.

Where the Weakness Looks Sharpest

Austin and San Antonio: the clearest declines

Austin is the textbook case of a pandemic-era boom unwinding. The creator says values peaked in early summer 2022 and have slid since. He emphasizes that the typical seller price cut has grown to $35,000, which he reads as sellers paying to attract buyers. He attributes the pressure to overbuilding during the boom and new construction at lower price points competing with resale homes.

San Antonio is the more interesting claim. He argues it is the steepest decliner among major Texas metros in the data he reviewed, and that it never had Austin-style speculation. If that is right, the drop reflects weaker underlying demand and affordability limits, not just a hangover. That is plausible, but a single data pull cannot prove it. Compare multiple sources before accepting the "steepest" label.

Waco: the data disagrees with itself

Waco shows how unreliable a single headline can be. One report he cites shows an 11.6% annual drop; another shows flat prices. He treats the disagreement as a warning sign. A more cautious reading is that small-market medians swing with the mix of homes sold, so a few high-end or low-end sales can move the number. What the sources reportedly agree on is the supply side: active listings up more than 34%, days on market stretching past 130 in some reports, and over 70% of listings with at least one price cut.

El Paso and Killeen: small numbers, meaningful direction

Neither market shows a dramatic price drop. But the jump in El Paso listings with price reductions, from under 1% to more than 25%, is a notable behavioral shift. In Killeen, rising days on market and bigger cuts suggest even low-priced markets with steady military-related employment feel the squeeze from rates.

Markets That Look Steadier, With Caveats

Fort Worth has the biggest drop on the list at 7%, yet the creator describes it as stabilizing: he says it bottomed around $283,000 last October and has crept up since. Those two claims are hard to reconcile, since a recovery from $283,000 to $321,000 would not square with a 7% annual decline. This may reflect different data sources or seasonal swings. He also notes that the priciest zip codes gained value while the citywide median fell, a reminder that averages hide a split market.

Dallas shows soft prices (about 1.3% lower), but he stresses stalled turnover: in some recent months, fewer than one in five active listings sold. He balances that with the Dallas Fed's projection of more than 100,000 new jobs this year, tied partly to data centers and AI investment. For more on how data centers can reshape local housing demand, see our look at Phoenix's data center pushback.

Houston is the largest market, so even a roughly 1.7% decline matters in dollar terms. He says Houston is projected to add over 30,000 jobs, which should cushion prices, but new supply is arriving at the same time. His point that unsold homes sit more than 100 days while quick sales happen fast is a useful one: pricing accuracy matters more than the average.

Corpus Christi is the one he describes as flat but oversupplied, with more than eight months of supply, well past what most analysts call balanced.

McAllen is the oddball. Prices are reportedly up over 10%, but days on market are near 90 and the competitiveness score is low. His reading is that gains reflect a thin pool of higher-end sales rather than broad demand. That is a reasonable hypothesis, though it is an interpretation, not something the data prove.

What the Creator Gets Right, and Where to Push Back

The video is useful as a pattern-spotting exercise. Several points hold up:

• Rising supply, longer days on market and bigger price cuts reliably precede softer prices.
• Rates above 6% limit purchasing power for buyers who locked in far lower rates elsewhere or are priced out entirely.
• New construction, often offered with incentives, can undercut resale homes. Our explainer on builder rate buydowns versus a lower price shows how those deals work.

But there are limits worth keeping in mind:

• The framing is dramatic. The title says "collapse," while the figures mostly show declines of a few percent. A one-percent dip is not a collapse. The creator himself concedes that most analysts call this a reset.
• Mixed data sources. Medians from different providers (Zillow, Redfin, Realtor.com, local MLS boards) use different methods. Combining them into a single ranking can mislead.
• Medians are not like-for-like. A median falls when the mix of homes sold shifts toward cheaper ones, even if no individual home loses value.
• Time frames vary. Some numbers are January figures, others are trailing-year averages. The video does not always say which.
• Ordering is arbitrary. The "number one" slot is not the worst market. McAllen is actually the only metro on the list with rising prices.
• Local buyers still exist. Job growth in Dallas and Houston means demand has not vanished. It has been constrained by cost.

For a counterpoint on national claims of a historic downturn, see Mortgage Rates Near 7.5%: Are Home Sales Really Worse Than 2008?.

What This Means for You

This is general information, not personalized financial advice. Consider talking with a licensed agent, lender or financial adviser about your own situation.

If you are buying

• Supply above five months, with many listings already cut, gives buyers more room to negotiate on price, repairs and closing costs. See Seller Concessions Are Everywhere for tactics.
• Look at listing-level history: how long a home has sat, and how many times it has been reduced.
• Stress-test your budget at today's rates, and include property taxes and insurance, which are significant in Texas.
• Do not assume more declines are guaranteed. Waiting costs rent and can backfire if rates drop and demand returns.

If you are selling

• Price to today's competition, including new-construction offers, not to 2022 comps.
• Expect more days on market and be ready for concessions. The video suggests unsold homes in Houston sit far longer than those priced right.
• Check your neighborhood data. Citywide medians may not describe a luxury pocket or a starter-home area.

If you are an owner who is not selling

• A lower paper valuation matters only if you must sell or refinance. Most owners with fixed-rate mortgages are not forced sellers.
• Owners who bought near the 2022 peak with small down payments are the ones to watch; see Underwater Mortgages in 2026.
• Investors carrying higher costs, such as taxes, insurance and debt service, face more pressure than owner-occupants.

What to Watch Next

The creator tells viewers to track the next two quarters. These are the indicators worth following using public sources:

1. Weekly mortgage rates from Freddie Mac.
2. Months of supply and days on market from the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M and from Realtor.com and Redfin metro data.
3. Share of listings with price cuts, which often moves before median prices do.
4. Employment data from the Dallas Fed and state labor agencies, since jobs are the main counterweight to affordability.
5. Migration and population estimates from the Census Bureau, to test the "17th place" claim.

If supply keeps rising while rates stay put, more metros could slide from flat to declining. If rates ease and inventory growth slows, the correction could end quietly with prices flat for a year or two.

Bottom Line

The numbers shared by The Resident Survivor support a broad, uneven correction in the Texas housing market in 2026: more supply, longer waits, deeper cuts, and a slower flow of new residents. They do not, by themselves, support a statewide collapse. Austin, San Antonio and Waco look the weakest in this dataset, while Houston and Dallas are drifting lower at a gentler pace and McAllen is an outlier worth scrutinizing. Verify any local number with several sources before making a big decision.