Which Florida counties are losing value fastest?
Using Zillow's Home Value Index through the end of August 2026, the steepest 12-month declines in Florida are in Charlotte (-4.9%), Lee (-4.4%), Calhoun (-4.1%), Hendry (-3.9%) and Manatee (-3.4%). Polk and Collier tie for the tenth spot at -2.4%.
That ranking comes from a county-by-county review by the Florida-focused YouTube channel FloridaPulse, hosted by Roy Baker. His central point: a 3% or 4% annual dip is modest, while the gap between today's value and each county's own record is where the real money moved. Below, we lay out the data, what appears to drive each market, and how to use it without over-reading it.
The statewide picture
FloridaPulse reports the typical Florida home is valued at about $375,470, down 1.5% in 12 months. Beneath that average:
- 39 of Florida's 67 counties are worth less than a year ago.
- 61 counties sit below their own record high.
- 37 counties are more than 5% under their peak, eight are more than 10% under, four are more than 15% under, and exactly one (Charlotte) is more than 20% under.
- Of the 29 Florida metro areas Zillow tracks, nearly all are below their records.
The video also notes Florida is still up roughly 20% over five years. That context matters: the state has given back some pandemic-era gains, not all of them.
A note on the data. The Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) estimates the typical value of homes in the middle price tier and is smoothed and seasonally adjusted. It is not an average sale price, and in small counties a handful of transactions can move it. Zillow's September figures were expected in mid-October, so this list reflects the most recent month then published.
The 10 counties at a glance
| Rank | County | Typical value | 12-month change | Peak | Below peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlotte | ~$297,268 | -4.9% | Aug 2022 | 24.2% (~$94,800) |
| 2 | Lee | ~$335,409 | -4.4% | Aug 2022 | 18.8% (~$77,800) |
| 3 | Calhoun | ~$176,870 | -4.1% | Aug 2024 | 9.1% (~$17,800) |
| 4 | Hendry | ~$274,458 | -3.9% | Apr 2024 | 7.3% (~$21,700) |
| 5 | Manatee | ~$407,828 | -3.4% | Aug 2022 | 15.3% (~$73,800) |
| 6 | Franklin | ~$421,618 | -3.3% | Jul 2022 | 8.9% (~$41,000) |
| 7 | Osceola | ~$359,490 | -3.2% | Sep 2022 | 8.6% (~$33,800) |
| 8 | Glades | ~$261,366 | -3.2% | Jun 2025 | 3.9% (~$10,700) |
| 9 | Sarasota | ~$396,714 | -2.9% | Aug 2022 | 17.9% (~$86,400) |
| 10 (tie) | Polk | ~$295,824 | -2.4% | Sep 2022 | 8.5% (~$27,500) |
| 10 (tie) | Collier | ~$550,723 | -2.4% | Mar 2024 | 12.2% (~$76,000) |
The Southwest Gulf Coast: Charlotte, Lee, Manatee, Sarasota
Four of the top ten sit along one stretch of coast, and they hold the deepest drawdowns.
Charlotte County: fewer sellers, weaker demand
Charlotte's typical home is about $297,268. FloridaPulse points out something many headlines miss: this is not a flood of sellers. In the Punta Gorda metro, homes for sale fell to about 3,090 in August from roughly 4,200 a year earlier. Only about 21% of listings had a price cut, down from about 24%. What changed is time on market: about 114 days to reach pending, versus 83 in August 2019.
Baker's read is that buyers stopped paying the old prices. Condos are the weak spot. The typical Charlotte condo, around $199,000, is down more than 10% in a year and about 35% below its peak, roughly $109,000 per unit. New homes in the area sold at a median of about $325,000 in July, down from $335,000.
Lee County: new homes priced like resales
Lee, the Cape Coral metro, is about 18.8% under its August 2022 peak. Cape Coral itself is roughly 22% below peak, and Fort Myers Beach, at about $486,000, is around 31% below, the deepest gap of any town Baker pulled. Condos are down 7% in a year and nearly 25% from their high.
Inventory fell from about 13,100 to 10,500 homes, and only about 21% of listings had cuts, yet homes took about 119 days to go pending. Builders sold about 515 new homes in July at a median near $338,000, close to the typical existing home. That puts new construction in direct competition with resale, a dynamic we examine in Southwest Florida resale values under pressure from builders.
Manatee and Sarasota
Manatee is down 3.4% and 15.3% below peak. Anna Maria, at about $1.88 million, is roughly 28% under its high, while Holmes Beach rose 2.4% over the year despite being about 25% under. A town can be far below its peak and still be rising.
Sarasota, down 2.9%, is 17.9% below its August 2022 high, the second-largest dollar gap on the list. Venice is about 22% under, and Sarasota condos are down 5% in a year and more than 24% from the peak. In the North Port metro, which pairs Sarasota and Manatee, about one in four listings had a price cut and homes took roughly 91 days to go pending. New construction sold at a median near $416,000, versus about $445,000 a year earlier. When builders cut prices by nearly $29,000, resale sellers nearby have to respond. For more on condo exposure, see our look at Florida condo prices by county.
Slower, smaller and inland: Hendry, Polk, Osceola, Glades
Hendry County: inventory is the signal
Hendry (the Clewiston metro) is down 3.9%, but only 7.3% below its April 2024 peak. Active listings rose to 242 in August from 205 a year earlier and 126 in August 2019. Homes took about 115 days to go pending, and about one in five had a price cut, versus roughly one in ten in 2019. More supply and slower sales is the classic pattern in a small market.
Polk and Osceola: Central Florida competition from builders
Polk (the Lakeland metro) is down 2.4%. About 27% of August listings had a cut, and homes took roughly 80 days to go pending versus 49 in 2019. Builders sold about 440 new homes in July at a median near $325,000, above the typical existing home. Polk condos fell about 7.5%.
Osceola is down 3.2% and 8.6% below its 2022 peak. Poinciana is down 4.2% and more than 14% below its high. In the Orlando metro, about 28% of listings had cuts and homes took 70 days to go pending, up from 46 in 2019. The metro as a whole is only about 6% below its May 2024 peak, so Osceola has given back more than the region around it.
Glades County: read with care
Glades fell 3.2% but peaked only in June 2025 and is just 3.9% below it. Baker himself cautions that small counties can swing on a few sales. It shows a market that turned recently rather than one in a long slide.
Franklin and Calhoun: the exceptions to the coastal story
Franklin County on the Forgotten Coast is down 3.3% and 8.9% below its July 2022 peak. Apalachicola is about 10.5% off its high and Carrabelle more than 9%. Even so, Baker notes the typical Apalachicola home was around $217,000 in December 2019, so long-time owners remain well ahead.
Calhoun is the lowest-priced county on the list at about $176,870. It is down 4.1% but peaked in August 2024, not during the 2022 boom. Blountstown, around $150,000, is about 11.5% under its peak yet roughly 43% above its December 2019 level, per FloridaPulse. Next door, Liberty County is up almost 5%.
Where prices are still rising
The counterweight is rural North Florida. According to the video, Taylor County is up 6.1% to about $197,600 at a record, Lafayette is up 5.8%, Hamilton 5.7%, Liberty 4.8%, Jefferson 4.6% (about $312,600), Baker 3.9% (about $315,000) and Bradford 3.8%. Five of these sit at records.
The big counties are mixed: Miami-Dade is flat at about $521,000, Palm Beach is up 1.2% to about $474,000, Broward is down 2.1% to about $423,000, Hillsborough is down 1.4%, Orange down 1.2%, Duval down 0.7% and Pinellas down 0.8%. Pinellas is worth a second look because it is more than 10% below peak despite a quiet year.
What drives the declines, and where the video falls short
The brief for this article asked about insurance, inventory and new builds. The video's evidence is strongest on the last two: slower sales, longer time to pending, and builders pricing new homes at or below the local resale median. It does not quantify insurance as a driver, so we cannot attribute these declines to it from this source.
As general context, ownership costs in coastal Florida include insurance premiums, association fees and, for condos, special assessments and reserve funding. Zillow's index tracks value, not monthly carrying costs, a limit Baker flags himself. Rising carrying costs can reduce what buyers can pay, particularly in condos. Our piece on Condo Market 2027 and reserve rules covers that mechanism, and Florida Home Prices 2026 and Zillow's yield warning covers the rate side.
Limits and counterpoints
- ZHVI is a modeled estimate, not closed sales, and small counties like Glades, Hendry and Calhoun are noisy.
- Time-on-market figures come from Zillow's metro data, which does not always match county lines (Charlotte is the Punta Gorda metro; Hendry is the Clewiston metro).
- Peak-to-now comparisons depend heavily on when the peak occurred. A 2022 peak and a 2025 peak tell different stories.
- Baker is a single analyst with a stated interest in town-level guides, so treat his interpretations, such as buyers "not showing up" at old prices, as informed reading, not proof.
What this means for you
If you are buying
The gap from peak is where negotiation starts, not a guarantee of a bargain. Check a listing's price history and the county property appraiser's record of the prior sale to judge how much room a seller has. Compare new-construction incentives against resale, and price in insurance quotes and association fees before comparing monthly payments. Condos deserve extra diligence on reserves and assessments.
If you are selling
Where builders are cutting prices, a resale competes directly with them. Long days-to-pending, 114 days in Charlotte and 119 in the Cape Coral area per the video, suggest pricing to current demand rather than 2022 memories. Our guide to the real cost to sell a house can help you estimate net proceeds.
If you already own
If you are not selling, a paper decline does not change your cash flow. Many owners who bought before 2020 remain well ahead, as the Apalachicola, Blountstown and Englewood examples show. Englewood, about 25% below its peak at roughly $322,000, is still above its approximately $244,000 value in December 2019. Owners who bought near the top feel it most.
What to watch next
Zillow's September update, mortgage rates (track Freddie Mac's weekly survey), local active-listing counts, and builder incentive levels are the near-term indicators. If inventory falls while values keep sliding, as in Charlotte and Lee, demand is the constraint. If inventory climbs, as in Hendry, supply is.