Housing Affordability at a 40-Year Low? What the Numbers Show

Is housing affordability really at a 40-year low?

It depends on the yardstick, but the pressure is real. A video from Michael Bordenaro Clips, published October 14, 2026, argues that surging mortgage rates are pushing homes further out of reach and that buying activity is already sitting at multi-decade lows. The creator says the average 30-year fixed rate is in the mid-7% range, up from the 7% level that surprised many people a few weeks earlier.

The short answer: on a monthly-payment basis, affordability is among the weakest in a generation when rates are this high and prices remain elevated. But "40-year low" is a specific claim about an index, and the video does not present one. Below we separate what the video documents from what you should verify yourself.

What the video actually claims

The video was recorded on September 29, so the figures below are a snapshot from the creator, not live data. According to Michael Bordenaro Clips:

• The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is in the mid-7% range.
• Some housing experts now say 9% rates are possible within 12 months, while large firms such as Zillow and Redfin had projected roughly 6.5% to 7% by year-end.
• The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.27%, up more than half a percentage point in a month.
• The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.612%, which the creator describes as a 25-year high.
• Home purchases are "already sitting at over 30-year lows."

Notice what is missing: the video does not compare incomes, home prices and payments across decades. That comparison is the heart of any affordability claim, so we build a version of it below using general reference points.

The payment math: what a higher rate does to a $400,000 loan

The most concrete figure in the video is the payment example. The creator says a $400,000, 30-year loan costs about $2,661 a month at 7%, and about $3,218 at 9%. That is $557 more per month, or roughly $6,700 a year. We checked the arithmetic and it holds for principal and interest.

Here is how the same loan looks across a range of rates. These are our own illustrative calculations, covering principal and interest only. Property taxes, homeowners insurance and any mortgage insurance come on top.

The 3% row matters for context. Rates were below 3% for a stretch in early 2021, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey. A buyer in that era financing the same $400,000 paid roughly $1,000 a month less than a buyer at 7%. That gap, not just sticker prices, is what many analysts mean when they say affordability has deteriorated.

Why rates are rising: Treasury yields, not just the Fed

A key point in the video is that the recent jump is tied to Treasury yields rather than to Federal Reserve rate decisions. Bordenaro argues the old link between Fed moves and mortgage rates has weakened. He is partly right in a technical sense: 30-year mortgage rates generally follow the 10-year Treasury yield, plus a spread that reflects lender costs and risk. The Fed sets a short-term policy rate, which influences long-term yields indirectly through expectations about inflation and growth, but it does not set mortgage rates.

The creator also explains the spread idea: lenders want to earn more than they could by simply buying a Treasury. If the 10-year yield keeps rising, mortgage rates have to sit above it. He extrapolates that if the 10-year climbs at the recent pace, it could approach 7% next year and push mortgage rates to 9% or more. He openly says that is only what happens if the current pace continues, and that it could slow.

For a deeper look at how yields feed through to home loans, see our explainer on Treasury yields and mortgage rates.

The 9% scenario and its conditions

The video lists three conditions that outside experts attach to a 9% outcome: oil near $100 a barrel amid conflict with Iran, a strong economy with robust jobs and spending, and a more aggressive Fed. Bordenaro is skeptical that all three are required and thinks yields could keep rising regardless. Treat this as one scenario. Rate forecasts have a poor track record over 12-month horizons, in both directions.

How today's affordability compares with past decades

To judge a "40-year low," you need three inputs: the monthly payment on a typical home, the typical household income, and the share of income the payment consumes. The National Association of Realtors publishes a Housing Affordability Index built on exactly that logic, and the Atlanta Fed publishes its Home Ownership Affordability Monitor. Both let you compare across time.

Here is the general historical picture, which you should confirm in those datasets:

• Early 1980s: mortgage rates ran well into the double digits, but home prices were far lower relative to income, so the loan balance was small.
• 2010s: rates were low and prices were moderate, a favorable combination for buyers.
• 2021: rates fell below 3% while prices began surging.
• Now: rates in the mid-7% range sit on top of prices that remain far above pre-2020 levels.

The mid-1980s comparison the creator makes is reasonable on rates alone. But affordability today is a different animal from then, because the problem now is a high price combined with a high rate, rather than a high rate on a cheap house. Whether that combination is the worst in 40 years is a question the NAR and Atlanta Fed series can answer directly. Our reading: by payment-to-income measures, it is plausibly near the bottom of the modern range, but the exact ranking varies by methodology.

Where the creator's view needs caution

A fair read should note the limits of the argument.

• The headline is not tested in the video. There is no income or price comparison, so "40-year low" is asserted rather than demonstrated.
• Forecasts are not facts. A 9% rate and a roughly 7% 10-year yield are extrapolations. Yields can reverse quickly if inflation cools or growth slows.
• Default talk is speculative. The creator suggests a 10-year yield of 6.1% could trigger a federal debt crisis and even missed bond payments. That is a forecast with no firm threshold behind it; mainstream analysts debate debt sustainability, but a specific tripwire is not established.
• The Fed link is not zero. Fed policy still shapes inflation expectations and thus long-term yields. "Completely disconnected" is an overstatement.
• Credit score detail. The transcript mentions credit scores "below 830," which cannot be right since the top FICO score is 850. Rate pricing does vary by credit, down payment and loan type, but the exact figures were not verifiable.
• Not every market is the same. Local prices, inventory and incomes vary widely, so national averages can mislead.

What this means for you

This is general guidance, not personal financial advice.

If you are a buyer

The creator's counterintuitive argument is that you should not rush to "lock in" a rate out of fear of 9%. He says unless prices where you live are rising 5% to 8% a year, a pause carries less risk, because high rates weigh on sellers. That has a logic: if fewer buyers qualify, sellers may cut prices. But waiting has its own costs, including rent and the chance that rates do not fall. Run your own numbers at several rates, get a written estimate from a lender, and focus on a monthly payment you can sustain with a cushion. Keep in mind you may be able to refinance if rates drop later, though that is never guaranteed.

If you are a seller

The video's central point is that sellers face a choice: wait longer on a home that is not moving, or reduce the price enough to bring the monthly payment within reach of local buyers. Each 0.5-point rate increase lifts the payment on a given loan, which effectively shrinks your buyer pool. Pricing against payments, not against last year's comps, is the practical lesson. Our guide to Nashville price cuts shows how reductions can play out, and our breakdown of the real cost of selling will help you calculate net proceeds before you drop your price.

If you are a current owner

If you hold a low fixed rate, higher market rates do not change your payment. The tradeoff is the "lock-in effect": many owners are reluctant to give up a cheap loan, which keeps resale inventory tight. A variable-rate loan or one due to reset deserves a closer look at your budget.

What to watch next

Track a few public numbers rather than predictions:

1. Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the national average 30-year rate.
2. The 10-year Treasury yield on FRED or the Treasury's daily yield curve page.
3. NAR's Housing Affordability Index and the Atlanta Fed's monitor for the multi-decade comparison.
4. Census income data for how household earnings are keeping pace.
5. Seller price cuts and inventory in your local market, which show whether sellers are adjusting.

Builders are already adapting, as covered in our look at new homes unsold inventory. If rates keep rising, expect more incentives and more price reductions, particularly in markets where listings pile up. Affordability can improve through lower rates, lower prices, or higher incomes. At the moment, the video argues the first is moving in the wrong direction, so the second may be what decides the next stretch of the market.