The short answer: a few inland and desert cities come close
In which California cities does owning cost about the same as renting? According to a new analysis from the YouTube channel InsideCalifornia, the closest is Twentynine Palms, where a mortgage on the typical home runs about $52 a month more than typical rent. Fourteen other cities, mostly in the Central Valley, Inland Empire, High Desert and Antelope Valley, sit within roughly $215 to $515 a month.
That is unusual in a state where the typical home carries a payment of about $4,700 a month, according to the video. The creator says that in the typical California city he reviewed, owning costs more than 50% above renting. This article walks through his figures, adds context he left out, and explains why a narrow gap is a starting point for research, not a buy signal.
How the comparison was built
InsideCalifornia screened every California city with more than 20,000 residents. For each, he estimated a mortgage payment on the typical home, assuming 20% down and including property taxes and insurance. He then compared it with Zillow's typical rent for the same city.
A few things to keep in mind about that method:
- "Typical" means a middle-of-the-market estimate. Zillow's home value and rent indexes smooth out thousands of listings and leases, so your own numbers will differ.
- The interest rate was not stated in the transcript. Mortgage payments depend heavily on the rate. You can check current averages on Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey.
- Rent is for a typical rental, not an identical house. Single-family homes usually rent for more than apartments, so the comparison can understate or overstate the true gap depending on the city's housing mix.
Even so, using one consistent method across 15 cities is useful for spotting where the ownership premium is thin.
The 15 cities and their monthly gaps
The figures below are the creator's, listed in the order he presented them (15th to 1st). Payments for Patterson, Merced and Palmdale were garbled in the auto-captions, so those are implied from the stated rent and gap and are marked "approx."
| City | Typical home | Monthly cost to own | Typical rent | Owning costs more by |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulare | ~$357,000 | ~$2,200 | ~$1,825 | ~$370 (about 20%) |
| Merced | ~$396,000 | ~$2,440 | ~$2,030 (approx.) | ~$410 |
| Patterson | not clear in transcript | ~$3,090 (approx.) | ~$2,580 | ~$510 |
| Shafter | ~$387,000 | ~$2,380 | ~$2,000 | ~$375 |
| Beaumont | ~$535,000 | ~$3,300 | ~$2,780 | ~$515 |
| Hanford | ~$383,000 | ~$2,360 | ~$2,000 | ~$360 |
| Victorville | ~$435,000 | ~$2,680 | ~$2,275 | ~$400 |
| Lancaster | ~$462,000 | ~$2,850 | ~$2,420 | ~$425 |
| Desert Hot Springs | ~$377,000 | ~$2,320 | ~$1,985 | ~$335 |
| Adelanto | ~$398,000 | ~$2,450 | ~$2,100 | ~$345 |
| Perris | ~$543,000 | ~$3,345 | ~$2,880 | ~$460 |
| Barstow | ~$266,000 | ~$1,640 | ~$1,425 | ~$215 |
| Palmdale | ~$500,000 | ~$3,080 (approx.) | ~$2,750 | ~$330 (about 12%) |
| Selma | ~$362,000 | ~$2,230 | ~$2,000 | ~$230 (about 11.5%) |
| Twentynine Palms | ~$247,000 | ~$1,525 | ~$1,470 | ~$52 (about 3.5%) |
Two points stand out. First, the closest cities are not the ones with the lowest payments in dollars. Twentynine Palms, Barstow, Selma and Palmdale lead because rents there are high relative to home prices, not because homes are dirt cheap. Second, every city on the list still requires a larger monthly outlay to own, and the video notes that no California city over 20,000 people came out cheaper to own than rent.
The top of the list: Twentynine Palms, Selma and Palmdale
Twentynine Palms: a military-driven rental market
InsideCalifornia puts Twentynine Palms first. The city sits beside the Marine Corps Air Ground Combat Center, and the creator argues that base housing allowances shape the whole market. He says a junior enlisted Marine with a family receives about $1,900 a month for off-base housing this year, which would cover either the typical rent or the typical mortgage payment. You can look up current rates for any duty station with the Defense Department's BAH calculator.
He also points out that service members who receive new orders often rent their homes to the next arrivals, which keeps rental demand steady. A 20% down payment is about $49,000, and the video notes that eligible veterans and active-duty members may qualify for a VA-backed loan with no down payment, which would change the math further.
The market is slow: prices dipped about 1% over the past year, roughly a fifth of listings had price cuts, and homes took almost two months to go pending. The creator is candid about drawbacks, including summer heat above 100 degrees, a roughly hour-long drive to Palm Springs for major hospitals, and few jobs outside the base.
Selma: close, but with thin rent data
Selma, about 15 miles south of Fresno, shows a gap of about $230 a month, or around 11.5%. A notable detail is that its typical rent is about the same as Fresno's, even though Fresno is far larger. The creator cautions that Zillow only began tracking Selma rents this summer, with roughly three months of data, so treat the rent figure as provisional. Home values rose about 2% in the past year, and only about 15% of listings had price cuts.
Palmdale: the biggest city in the group
With about 165,000 residents, Palmdale is the largest city on the list. The creator credits aerospace employment around Air Force Plant 42 and Edwards Air Force Base. Owning costs about $330 a month more, or 12%, compared with roughly 55% in the typical city under 900,000 residents that he reviewed. About 23% of listings had price cuts, homes were going pending in about a month, and Zillow projects prices rising around 1.5% over the next year.
Why rents are catching up in the Inland Empire and High Desert
A recurring pattern in the video is that rents are rising faster than home values. In Perris, rents rose a little under 6% over the past year while home values rose less than 1%. In Adelanto, rents climbed almost 7%. In Victorville, nearly 5%. Barstow's rent growth was the highest on the list at almost 9%, with the creator noting that Zillow's typical rent there was about $1,130 at the end of 2021 and is now above $1,400.
If those trends continue, the monthly gap narrows without any change in mortgage rates. InsideCalifornia expects Victorville to move up the list next year and suggests Barstow could be where the gap closes next, citing a proposed rail yard that BNSF would fund at about $4 billion and that the city expects to create about 5,400 jobs over 20 years. That is a forecast and a project, not a guarantee, and large logistics developments can take years to deliver jobs or change local housing demand.
Not every market is moving the same way. Merced, Desert Hot Springs, Barstow and Twentynine Palms all saw prices dip about 1% to 1.5% over the past year in the video's data, while Hanford rose almost 3%, the strongest gain on the list. For broader California price expectations, see our look at Zillow's California home price forecast for 2028.
What this means for you
If you are a renter considering buying
A gap of $200 to $500 a month is small compared with the state average, but the monthly payment is only part of the cost. The numbers in the video include principal, interest, taxes and insurance, yet not routine maintenance, repairs, HOA dues or utilities that landlords may otherwise cover. A common rule of thumb is to budget a percentage of the home's value each year for upkeep, though the right figure depends on the home's age.
You also need the down payment. At 20% down, the video's figures imply roughly $49,000 in Twentynine Palms and $53,000 in Barstow, while the Beaumont and Perris homes would need well over $100,000. Closing costs are on top of that. Putting less down can lower the upfront cash but typically raises the monthly payment and may add mortgage insurance.
If you are a seller or landlord in these markets
Rising rents and flat prices favor owners who hold rentals, but the creator also shows slack in some areas. About a quarter of Lancaster listings had price cuts, and Twentynine Palms homes sat for nearly two months. Sellers should price to local conditions and understand their net proceeds; our guide to the real cost to sell a house explains what comes out of the sale price.
If you already own
Persistent rent growth can support the value of nearby homes, but a one-year rent move is not a trend. Check insurance costs in particular. Premiums are a large part of the ownership payment in many parts of the state, a theme we cover in California home insurance and home prices.
Limits and counterpoints to the analysis
The video is a useful screen, but its own caveats matter. Several rent estimates come from very little data: Shafter's rent reflects about one month of Zillow tracking, Patterson's only began this summer, and Selma's has about three months. The creator says so openly, and the gaps in those cities could move.
There are also structural limits that any rent-versus-buy snapshot shares:
- Equity. A mortgage payment includes principal that builds ownership, so owning is not the same kind of expense as rent. Conversely, a down payment tied up in a house has an opportunity cost.
- Price risk. Several cities saw flat or slightly falling prices, and a home bought at a small monthly premium can lose value or take years to appreciate.
- Commute and jobs. The creator himself notes the two-hour Metrolink ride from Lancaster to Los Angeles and limited local jobs in places like Selma and Twentynine Palms. Savings on housing can be offset by time and transportation.
- Local conditions. Heat, wind, air quality, water and power constraints, and neighborhood differences can matter more than a citywide median. The creator reminds viewers that Victorville varies a lot from one end of town to the other.
- Rates and taxes. Payments move with interest rates, and property tax and insurance assumptions are estimates.
This article is general information, not personalized financial advice. A lender, a housing counselor, or a local agent can run numbers for your actual situation.
What to watch next
Track four things: whether Zillow's thin rent series in Patterson, Shafter and Selma firm up; whether rent growth in the Inland Empire and High Desert keeps outpacing home values; the pace of price cuts in cities like Lancaster and Palmdale; and mortgage rate moves, which can change the gap faster than any local development. If you want to compare other pressure points in California housing, our reporting on insurance exposure and price forecasts is a good next step.