Housing Inventory Tops 2019 Levels as Pending Sales Fall

The short answer: more homes, but not more sellers

The unusual shift in the national data is that the number of homes for sale has climbed past where it stood in 2019, the last full year before the pandemic. According to Reports On Housing chief economist B. Steven Thomas, Altos Research counts roughly 1.15 million detached homes on the market nationally, and that is the first time inventory has cleared the pre-pandemic benchmark since the 2020 supply crunch began.

The twist is the cause. Thomas argues this is not a flood of new sellers. It is a drop in buyers signing contracts. When fewer homes go under contract, the ones already listed pile up. For buyers, that means more choice and more room to negotiate. For sellers, it means more competition and a greater chance that an overpriced listing sits.

This article walks through the figures the video cites, explains the terms, and adds context on what to watch before acting on any of it. The numbers below come from the video and from the creator's reading of third-party data, so treat them as one analyst's view rather than settled fact.

What the numbers say

Here are the key figures from the Reports On Housing "Housing Debrief" published November 7, 2026:

Two caveats on that table. Altos Research counts detached single-family homes only, so its figure is narrower than the combined houses-and-condos count from sources such as Realtor.com. And the video does not say which purchase-application index produced the 134.1 reading, so an editor or reader should confirm it against the Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly survey before relying on it.

Why demand fell: the rate shock

Thomas ties the demand drop to mortgage rates. By his account, rates on Mortgage News Daily's index sat at 5.99% on February 27, the lowest level of the year, and then rose steadily after the start of the Iran conflict on February 28. They reached about 6.75%, then climbed again past 7.5% within roughly four weeks after a shift in the expected length of the conflict.

He describes that move as the sharpest increase in borrowing costs since September 2022, when the Federal Reserve was in the middle of its rate-hiking cycle. His analogy is dousing the market with cold water.

The mechanics are worth spelling out. A mortgage payment is mostly driven by the rate, so a jump of about 1.5 percentage points over a few weeks can add hundreds of dollars a month to a typical payment. Buyers who were pre-approved at one payment find the same house no longer fits. Some drop out; others wait.

How purchase applications connect to sales

Purchase applications are a forward-looking signal. A person applies for a loan weeks before closing, so a dive in applications usually foreshadows fewer pending sales and then fewer closed sales. Thomas calls this "not an exact science," and he is right: applications can be duplicated, cancelled or shifted between lenders. But direction matters, and he reads the 134.1 figure as a large decline.

For a refresher on how contract fallout can distort the picture, see our look at home purchase contract cancellations.

A frozen market, not a flooded one

Thomas describes the current market as sluggish. New listings are not surging. Instead, homes that arrive are meeting few buyers, so they stay listed. Fewer homes are moving to pending status, and the supply that remains competes against itself.

He also notes the seasonal pattern is off. Inventory normally levels out in the fall and starts to fall around Thanksgiving. This year it has kept rising for the time of year.

This distinction matters for interpretation. Inventory is a stock: listings added minus listings sold or withdrawn. If sales slow, the stock rises even when new listings are flat. Readers who see a headline about "rising supply" should ask whether sellers are rushing in or buyers are stepping back. In this case, the creator says it is the second.

For a broader look at buyer leverage across the country, see our analysis of what the data says about buyer leverage.

Pressure on prices: drift, not plunge

With buyers scarce and sellers still listing, Thomas expects downward pressure on prices through the end of the year. He expects the feel to stay slow into the first weeks of January.

His forecast is specific about what that pressure looks like. In many markets, he says, prices will edge down from month to month. That is a drift, not a collapse. He contrasts today's roughly 1.6 million homes, condos and detached combined, with the roughly 4 million on the market during the Great Recession. He also says homes in many areas are closing for about $1,000 to $3,000 less than the previous comparable sale.

That is a small adjustment on a typical home, but it matters to the negotiation. It shows buyers can ask for concessions, and sellers cannot assume the last sale sets a floor.

Where inventory is highest

The video shows a map comparing inventory with 2018-2019 levels. The highest readings cluster in what Thomas calls the Sunbelt: Las Vegas, Phoenix and parts of Tucson, much of Texas and much of Florida. He links this to builders. Where large volumes of new homes are being completed, resale sellers compete with builders who can offer rate buydowns and incentives.

Our coverage of the new Florida housing crisis and unsold new homes in California look at related builder-inventory dynamics. For national builder confidence, see homebuilder sentiment at a 14-year low.

What to watch into 2027

Thomas's outlook hinges on rates. He says he expects the Iran conflict to wind down by around the new year. If that happens, he expects rates to slip below 7% and into the sixes, which would revive buying activity.

He also points to seasonality. Demand tends to rise again toward the end of January, he says, and in warm-weather markets in Southern California, Arizona and Nevada, activity usually picks up around the time of the Super Bowl. He says this has held even in recessions, the pandemic and rising-rate years.

His longer view is that 2027 will be a fifth year of the "new normal" that began in 2023: roughly flat prices nationally, with some markets rising and some falling. That is consistent with a market where rates in the high sixes or low sevens keep affordability tight.

For a second, independent forecast, read our summary of the NAR chief economist's 2027 outlook.

To track the rate story yourself, use Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey and the MBA's weekly applications report. The video's figures come from Mortgage News Daily's daily index, which usually differs from Freddie Mac's weekly average.

Limits and counterpoints

Several cautions apply.

• One data set. The headline comes from Altos Research's detached-home count. Realtor.com, Redfin and Zillow measure inventory differently, and the comparison with 2019 may look different on those series. Confirm with at least one other source.
• Rates are a forecast. The prediction that rates fall under 7% rests on a geopolitical event ending by a certain date. The video is a market commentary, not a guarantee, and rates can move on inflation data, Treasury yields and Fed decisions as well.
• Local markets vary. Thomas himself says all real estate is local, and notes viewers in Austin, Seattle and Las Vegas push back on the national picture. A national average can hide tight neighborhoods and glutted ones in the same metro.
• Creator interests. Reports On Housing sells county-level subscription reports, and the video promotes them. That does not make the analysis wrong, but readers should weigh it accordingly.
• Price cuts are not crashes. A few thousand dollars below the last comparable sale is not the same as a sharp fall. Sellers who carry little debt can often wait.

What this means for you

This is general information, not personalized financial advice. Check your own budget and talk to a licensed professional.

If you are buying

• More inventory and slower sales typically give buyers more time to compare and more leverage to ask for repairs, credits or a rate buydown.
• Do not assume prices will keep falling. Rate relief could bring buyers back in early 2027 and tighten bargaining power again.
• Get a rate quote and a payment estimate at a few different rates, so you know what happens if rates fall or rise.
• Where builders are active, ask about incentives on new homes and compare them to resale options.

If you are selling

• Pricing is the biggest lever. Reports On Housing's latest report, "The Power of Pricing," argues that waiting and then cutting the price tends to net less than pricing correctly at the start. That is the firm's finding, but it fits what many agents say: stale listings invite lower offers.
• Look at recent closed sales, not old asking prices, and compare pending sales near you.
• If you do not have to sell this winter, consider whether listing after late January suits you better. Weigh that against your carrying costs.

If you already own

• A small dip in local comparables is unlikely to affect your plans if you are not selling or refinancing soon.
• If you have a low fixed rate, the current environment is a reminder of how valuable it is. Moving may cost you far more in monthly payment than the house price suggests.
• Watch your property tax assessment and insurance costs, which can move independently of market prices. See why property taxes keep going up even when values stall.

The bottom line

The headline is that listings have passed 2019 levels. The more important point is why. According to the data the video relies on, buyers pulled back after a fast rate spike, and a market that normally slows in late fall is slowing more than usual. That favors buyers in the short run, especially in Sunbelt metros with heavy construction.

It is not a sign of a collapse, and the path from here depends on rates, which are hard to predict. The practical approach is to track your own local data, price realistically, and plan for both a flat market and a modest spring pickup.